[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

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Tropical Storm Ian Local Statement Advisory Number 12
National Weather Service Miami FL  AL092022
1141 PM EDT Sun Sep 25 2022

This product covers South Florida

**Tropical Storm and Storm Surge Watches in Effect**

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Storm Surge Watch and Tropical Storm Watch have been issued for
      Coastal Collier
    - A Storm Surge Watch has been issued for Far South Miami-Dade,
      Inland Collier, and Mainland Monroe

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Storm Surge Watch and Tropical Storm Watch are in effect for
      Coastal Collier
    - A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for Far South Miami-Dade,
      Inland Collier, and Mainland Monroe

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 610 miles south of Naples FL or about 600 miles south of
      Marco Island FL
    - 17.3N 81.4W
    - Storm Intensity 65 mph
    - Movement Northwest or 315 degrees at 13 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

Tropical Storm Ian is presently located in the Caribbean Sea. This
system is forecast to intensify into a hurricane at some point Monday
upon approaching the Yucatan Channel, and may strengthen into a major
hurricane upon approaching the eastern Gulf of Mexico waters by
Tuesday. While a direct landfall to South Florida is unlikely at this
time, hazardous conditions can extend well away from the center of the
system. and these are the possible impacts for South Florida:

* Multiple rounds of heavy rainfall associated with rainbands may lead
to flooding across all of South Florida. Rainfall totals may range of
4 to 6 inches through Wednesday with locally higher amounts possible
and the risk could extend later into the week. This may result in
moderate/considerable flooding impacts.

* Peak storm surge values of 3 to 5 feet are a concern across
Southwest Florida mainly between Tuesday night and Wednesday night
primarily.

* Tornadoes may be embedded in showers and thunderstorms within the
outer rainbands associated with the system. Main concern is Tuesday
into Wednesday.

* Hazardous marine and beach conditions are expected with a high risk
for rip currents across all South Florida beaches. Elevated surf
conditions are likely along the Gulf coast.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* SURGE:
Prepare for life-threatening surge having possible significant
impacts across the Southwest Florida coast. Potential impacts in
this area include:
    - Areas of inundation with storm surge flooding accentuated by
      waves. Damage to several buildings, mainly near the coast.
    - Sections of near-shore escape routes and secondary roads become
      weakened or washed out, especially in usually vulnerable low
      spots.
    - Major beach erosion with heavy surf breaching dunes. Strong and
      numerous rip currents.
    - Moderate damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers.
      Several small craft broken away from moorings, especially in
      unprotected anchorages.

Also, prepare for locally hazardous surge having possible limited
impacts across the coast of Florida Bay.

Elsewhere across South Florida, little to no impact is anticipated.

* FLOODING RAIN:
Prepare for dangerous rainfall flooding having possible significant
impacts across South Florida. Potential impacts include:
    - Moderate rainfall flooding may prompt several evacuations and
      rescues.
    - Ditches and canals may quickly become swollen with swift
      currents and overspill their banks in a few places, especially
      in usually vulnerable spots.
    - Flood waters can enter some structures or weaken foundations.
      Several places may experience expanded areas of rapid
      inundation at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage
      areas. Some streets and parking lots take on moving water as
      storm drains and retention ponds overflow. Driving conditions
      become hazardous. Some road and bridge closures.

* WIND:
Prepare for dangerous wind having possible significant impacts across
coastal Collier. Potential impacts in this area include:
    - Some damage to roofing and siding materials, along with damage
      to porches, awnings, carports, and sheds. A few buildings
      experiencing window, door, and garage door failures. Mobile
      homes damaged, especially if unanchored. Unsecured lightweight
      objects become dangerous projectiles.
    - Several large trees snapped or uprooted, but with greater
      numbers in places where trees are shallow rooted. Several
      fences and roadway signs blown over.
    - Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban
      or heavily wooded places. A few bridges, causeways, and access
      routes impassable.
    - Scattered power and communications outages, but more prevalent
      in areas with above ground lines.

Also, prepare for hazardous wind having possible limited impacts
across the rest of South Florida.

* TORNADOES:
Prepare for a tornado event having possible limited impacts across
South Florida. Potential impacts include:
    - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution
      of emergency plans during tropical events.
    - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power
      and communications disruptions.
    - Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, mobile
      homes pushed off foundations or overturned, large tree tops and
      branches snapped off, shallow-rooted trees knocked over, moving
      vehicles blown off roads, and small boats pulled from moorings.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS:
Listen to local official for recommended preparedness actions, including
possible evacuation. If ordered to evacuate, do so immediately.

* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:

When making safety and preparedness decisions, do not focus on the
exact forecast track since hazards such as flooding rain, damaging
wind gusts, storm surge, and tornadoes extend well away from the
center of the storm.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For information on creating an emergency plan see getagameplan.org
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Miami FL around 5 AM EDT, or sooner if conditions warrant.

$$
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