[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT42 KNHC 240846
TCDAT2

Post-Tropical Cyclone Fiona Discussion Number  40
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL072022
500 AM AST Sat Sep 24 2022

Around 07Z, the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Fiona made landfall
on the Canso Peninsula of Nova Scotia near Hart Island and
Guysborough.  Surface observations indicate that the minimum
pressure at landfall was near 931 mb.  The initial intensity is
decreased to a somewhat uncertain 80 kt based on earlier
scatterometer data, with these winds occurring primarily to the
east and southeast of the center.

Fiona is starting to slow its forward motion, with the initial
motion now 360/23 kt.  A general northward to north-northeastward
motion with some additional decrease in forward speed is expected
during the next 60 h.  A subsequent northeastward motion is then
forecast until the cyclone dissipates just after 72 h.  The new
forecast track is similar to the previous track, but it lies a
little west of the previous track at 24-36 h.  The new forecast
track is close to the various consensus models.

Gradual weakening is anticipated during the next couple of days,
and Fiona's winds should drop below hurricane strength in just over
12 h.  After that, winds should decrease below gale force by 72 h
while the system is over the Labrador Sea.  The new intensity
forecast follows the trend of the intensity guidance and lies on
the upper edge of the guidance.


Key Messages:

1. Fiona is expected to affect portions of Atlantic Canada as a
powerful hurricane-force cyclone today, and significant impacts
from high winds, storm surge, and heavy rainfall are expected.
Hurricane and Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for much of
Atlantic Canada.

2. Large swells generated by Fiona are expected to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions along much of the
east coast of the United States, the northwestern Bahamas, Bermuda,
and Atlantic Canada during the next couple of days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  24/0900Z 46.0N  61.0W   80 KT  90 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 12H  24/1800Z 48.7N  60.8W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 24H  25/0600Z 52.2N  59.4W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  25/1800Z 56.0N  58.3W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  26/0600Z 59.4N  58.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 60H  26/1800Z 61.9N  58.1W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  27/0600Z 64.1N  57.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  28/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven
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