[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT45 KNHC 240845
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Hermine Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102022
800 AM CVT Sat Sep 24 2022

Hermine is barely holding on as a tropical storm.  This morning's
satellite presentation consists of an exposed surface circulation
situated well to the south-southwest of the deep convective mass.
The initial intensity is set at a generous 35 kt.

The southwesterly shear is currently affecting Hermine's cloud
pattern is predicted to increase while the thermodynamic
surrounding environment becomes progressively inhibiting.
Therefore, Hermine may hang on as a tropical storm today, but
weakening is expected to occur soon, and the cyclone should
degenerate into a remnant low-pressure system on Monday.
The latest NHC intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous
one, and is on the high end of the guidance.

The 0900 UTC position is based on a centroid point between
multiple surface swirls, one well to the south of the
convection and another near the edge of the convective canopy.
Hermine's initial motion is estimated to be northward, or 355/9 kt.
Hermine is expected to turn toward the northeast around the
northwest periphery of the east Atlantic subtropical ridge Sunday
evening.  By Monday evening, the vertically shallow remnant low
should turn toward the northwest in the east Atlantic trade wind
flow.  No significant changes were made to the NHC track forecast,
which lies in the middle of the model guidance suite.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  24/0900Z 20.2N  20.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  24/1800Z 21.5N  20.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  25/0600Z 23.3N  20.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  25/1800Z 24.6N  20.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  26/0600Z 25.4N  20.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 60H  26/1800Z 25.7N  21.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  27/0600Z 26.2N  22.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  28/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts
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