[Tropical] Tropical Weather Outlook and Summary

[EMWIN Server]

ABNT20 KNHC 221145
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Sep 22 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Fiona, located several hundred miles southwest of Bermuda, and on
Tropical Storm Gaston, located a few hundred miles west-southwest of
the Azores.

Southeastern Caribbean Sea:
Showers and thunderstorms continue in association with a tropical
wave located over the southeastern Caribbean Sea.  Although
upper-level winds are currently inhibiting development, the
environment is forecast to gradually become more favorable in a
couple of days, and a tropical depression is likely to form at that
time.  The disturbance is forecast to move west-northwestward across
the eastern Caribbean Sea during the next day or two, and be over
the central Caribbean Sea this weekend.  Regardless of development,
locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are likely to affect the
Windward Islands, northern Venezuela, and the ABC island chain
today. These impacts are likely to spread to northeastern Colombia
later this evening.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
Showers and thunderstorms located near the west coast of Africa are
associated with a tropical wave that has emerged over the warm
waters of the far eastern Atlantic.  Environmental conditions are
forecast to be conducive for some development, and a tropical
depression could form by this weekend while the system moves slowly
northward, between west Africa and the Cabo Verde Islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

East Central Tropical Atlantic:
A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles
west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce
disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  Despite marginal
environmental conditions, some slow development of this system is
possible over the next several days while it moves slowly
northwestward or northward over the tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Bucci
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