[Tropical] Tropical Weather Outlook and Summary

[EMWIN Server]

ABNT20 KNHC 220522
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Thu Sep 22 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Fiona, located several hundred miles southwest of Bermuda, and on
Tropical Storm Gaston, located several hundred miles west of the
Azores.

Southeastern Caribbean Sea:
Showers and thunderstorms continue in association with a tropical
wave located over the far southeastern Caribbean Sea.  Although
upper-level winds are currently inhibiting development, the
upper-level wind pattern ahead of the system is forecast to become a
little more favorable in a couple of days, and a tropical depression
is likely to form at that time.  The disturbance is forecast to move
west-northwestward across the eastern Caribbean Sea during the next
day or two, and be over the central Caribbean Sea this weekend.
Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds
are likely to affect the Windward Islands this morning. These
impacts are likely to spread to northern Venezuela, northeastern
Colombia, and the ABC island chain during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
Showers and thunderstorms located near the west coast of Africa are
associated with a tropical wave that is expected to move over the
warm waters of the far eastern Atlantic later today.  Thereafter,
environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for some
development, and a tropical depression could form by this weekend
while the system moves slowly northward, between west Africa and the
Cabo Verde Islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

East Central Tropical Atlantic:
A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles
west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce
disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  Despite marginal
environmental conditions, some slow development of this system is
possible over the next several days while it moves slowly
northwestward or northward over the tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Roberts
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