[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 190506
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Mon Sep 19 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0450 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Fiona is centered near 18.0N 68.1W at 19/0300 UTC or 40
nm SSE of Punta Cana, Dominican Republic, moving WNW at 9 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 982 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 75 kt with gusts to 90 kt. Seas of 12 ft or greater
extend out 120 nm in the E semicircle and 60 nm W semicircle. Peak
seas are currently 20 ft in the Mona Passage. Seas are expected to
build to 38 ft by the time Fiona strengthens to a major hurricane
over the Atlantic late Tue. Numerous strong convection associated
with the core of Fiona extends outward to 45 nm E semicircle and
60 nm W semicircle. Numerous moderate scattered strong convection
is located in a north-south oriented band to the east of Fiona
from 15N-20N between 64.5W-67W, including over Puerto Rico.
Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere within 270 nm E
semicircle, 90 nm SW quadrant and 180 nm NW quadrant. Latest
Doppler radar shows very heavy rain continuing over much of Puerto
Rico. At least two rain gauges measured over 20 inches of rain in
the past 24 hours, and catastrophic flooding has prompted dozens
of water rescues on Saturday and Saturday night in Puerto Rico. On
the forecast track, the center of Fiona will move over the
eastern portions of the Dominican Republic today, and near or to
the east of the Turks and Caicos Islands on Tuesday. Strengthening
is expected during the next 48 hours. Swells generated by Fiona
are affecting the Leeward Islands, the northern Windward Islands,
the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the northern coast of the
Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the
southeastern Bahamas. These conditions could cause life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please read the
latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center
at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the
latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave extends its axis along 44W from
04N-15N, moving west at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered showers are noted
along the northern half of the wave from 09N to 13N between 38W
and 48.5W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave extends its axis along 54W from
07N-20N, moving W at 10-15 kt. A surface trough extends N of the
wave to 26N52W. Scattered showers are noted along and within 360
nm E of the wave axis from 05N-13N. Scattered showers are also
along and within 180 nm E of the trough axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Senegal near 14N17W
to 1012 mb low pressure near 09N26W to 09N44W. The ITCZ extends
from 09N45W to 09N53W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is
noted from 06N-10N between 27W-30W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Weak surface ridging over the eastern United States extends
southwestward into the Gulf of Mexico, supporting mainly moderate
easterly winds across the central and western Gulf. Recent
observations from buoys and oil platforms show fresh NE winds
over the NE Gulf. Fresh to locally strong NE winds are west of the
Yucatan Peninsula, over the eastern Bay of Campeche. Recent buoy
data indicate seas of 2 to 3 ft prevail across the Gulf, but seas
as high as 4 ft may be occurring in a few spots. Scattered showers
and isolated tstorms are noted over the southwest Gulf of Mexico,
south of 25N and west of 91W. Similar activity is noted in the
eastern portion of the Straits of Florida, east of 81.5W, due to a
surface trough in the area. The rest of the Gulf remains under
fairly tranquil weather conditions. For the forecast, high
pressure over the southeastern U.S. will maintain gentle to
moderate easterly breezes and slight seas the next few days.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the section above for information on Hurricane Fiona.

Outside of convection associated with Fiona, scattered showers
and thunderstorms are noted north of Honduras, from 15.5N-18.5N
between 81W-88W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection
associated with the east Pacific monsoon trough is noted near the
coasts of western Venezuela, Colombia and eastern Panama, mainly
south of 13N between 68W-79W.

Fresh NE winds are likely occurring in the Windward Passage, while
recent ASCAT data indicate that gentle trades prevail elsewhere.
The area of winds over 20 kt and seas over 7 ft associated with
Fiona is confined to areas north of 15N between 63.5W-71W. Seas
are 1-3 ft cover the W Caribbean, west of 78W. Seas are 4-6 ft
elsewhere in the E Caribbean, outside of Fiona.

For the forecast, Hurricane Fiona will track near the eastern and
northern coasts of the Dominican Republic today and continue
northwestward to near or east of the Turks and Caicos Islands on
Tue while strengthening. Residual swell over the eastern Caribbean
from Fiona will slowly subside early this week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the sections above for details on Hurricane Fiona and
the tropical waves moving across the basin.

A 1017 mb surface low pressure near 27.5N46W is along a surface
trough extending from 25N47W to 27N46W. A recent ASCAT pass shows
fresh winds associated with this low. An upper-level low centered
near 25N47W is supporting this surface trough. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 28N-31N between 43W-48W. The system has a
low chance of tropical cyclone formation during the next 48 hours
while it moves generally northward.

A surface trough extends across the Florida Peninsula from 31N81W
to the Straits of Florida near 23N81.5W. Scattered showers and
tstorms are within 210 nm E of the trough axis, or from 22.5N to
31N between 77W and 81W. A weak stationary front extends from
31N61W to 29N63W with isolated showers to its east. High pressure
ridging prevails elsewhere, anchored by a 1023 mb high centered
near 34N34W.

Mostly moderate winds and seas of 4-6 ft prevail across most of
the Atlantic. The exception is near Hurricane Fiona. Winds over 20
kt and seas of 8 ft or higher are located south of 23N between
63W-70W, in association with Fiona. An area of fresh trade winds
is noted on scatterometer from 12N-20N between 28W-48W.

For the forecast west of 55W, Fiona will move to near 20.4N 70.0W
this evening, strengthen to a major hurricane Tue evening near
23.3N 71.1W, near 26.4N 70.5W Wed evening, then to near 31.2N
67.4W Thu evening. Fiona will move well northeast of the area
through Fri night. High pressure will build in the wake of Fiona.

$$
Hagen
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