[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 182330
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Mon Sep 19 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Fiona is centered near 18.2N 67.3W at 18/2100 UTC or
10 nm W of Mayaguez Puerto Rico moving NW at 8 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 986 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 75 kt with gusts to 90 kt. Sea heights of 12 ft or greater are
within 120 nm of the center in the E semicircle, and within 60 nm
of the center in the W semicircle. The maximum sea heights are
reaching 24 ft. Scattered to numerous moderate to strong
convection prevails from 14N to 21N between 62W and 70W. On the
forecast track, the center of Fiona will move near the northern
coast of the Dominican Republic tonight and Monday, and near or to
the east of the Turks and Caicos Islands on Tuesday. Swells
generated by Fiona are affecting the Leeward Islands, the northern
Windward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the northern
coast of the Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and
the southeastern Bahamas. These conditions could cause life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office for more details.

Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory, at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml, and the
Forecast/Advisory, at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml, for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave extends it axis along 42W from
03N-15N, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers are noted
along the northern half of the wave from 10N to 14N between 40W
and 45W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave extends it axis along 53W from
07N-20N, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. A surface trough extends N of
the wave from 21N and 27N. This trough is supported by an upper
level low. Scattered showers are noted E of the trough between
45W-51W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through coastal Africa near 13N16W to
09N39W. The ITCZ continues from 09N39W to 08N41W, then resumes
west of a tropical wave from 08N43W to 07N52W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 07N to 12N between 25W-29W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge over the eastern United States extends
southwestward into the Gulf of Mexico, with the associated
gradient supporting mainly gentle to moderate easterly winds
across the basin. The exception are the nightly pulses of fresh
northeast to east winds off the northwest section of the Yucatan
Peninsula. Altimeter and buoy data indicate wave heights of 1-3
ft, except for 3-4 ft wave heights offshore the northwest section
of the Yucatan Peninsula. An area of scattered showers is
confined to the western Bay of Campeche. Another area of scattered
showers is noted over the Straits of Florida. The rest of the
Gulf remains under fairly tranquil weather conditions.

For the forecast, high pressure over the southeastern U.S. will
maintain gentle to moderate easterly breezes and slight seas the
next few days.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the section above for information on Tropical Storm
Fiona.

Outside of convection associated to Fiona, scattered showers and
thunderstorms are noted S of 12N between 73W and 82W related to
the monsoon trough. Latest ASCAT data indicate fresh winds are at
the entrance of the Windward Passage, while gentle to moderate
trades prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, Hurricane Fiona will move to 18.7N 68.2W Mon
morning, and then moving north of Hispaniola later on Mon. Fiona
will then continue to intensify as is tracks farther north and
away from the Caribbean Sea. Residual swell over the eastern
Caribbean from Fiona will slowly subside over the eastern
Caribbean early this week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the sections above for details on Hurricane Fiona and
the tropical waves moving across the basin.

A surface trough extends across the Florida Peninsula enhancing
convection across the land area. Weaker showers are also noted
over the W Atlantic mainly W of 76W. To the east, a frontal
boundary extends from a 1014 mb low near 33N61W to 29N70W.
Scattered showers are noted NW of the front. High pressure ridge
prevails elsewhere, anchored by a 1021 mb high centered near
36N32W.

In the eastern Atlantic, fresh to strong north to northeast winds
are offshore SW Western Sahara and Mauritania, primarily from 18N
to 22N and west of 20W. Wave heights over these waters are 5-7
ft. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds along with wave heights
of 3-6 ft are present.

For the forecast west of 55W, Hurricane Fiona will move to 18.7N
68.2W Mon morning, 20.0N 69.2W Mon afternoon, 21.4N 70.1W Tue
morning, 22.8N 70.8W Tue afternoon, 24.1N 70.9W Wed morning, and
25.7N 70.7W Wed afternoon. Fiona will change little in intensity
as it moves to 30.0N 68.5W Thu afternoon, then will move north of
the area Thu night. High pressure will build in the wake of Fiona.

$$
ERA
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