[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 130851
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Tue Sep 13 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0720 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the Atlantic Ocean along 22W, from 21N
southward, moving west at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate to
strong convection is noted from 12N to 16N between 22W and 26W,
and also from 16N to 18N between 16W and 24W.

A tropical wave is in the Atlantic Ocean along 46W, from 21N
southward, moving west at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is noted from 09N to 18N between 37W
and 44W, and also from 14N to 18N between 44W and 50W.

A tropical wave is in the Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea along
69W/70W, and was clearly noted at the surface on overnight
scatterometer data, moving west at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 14N to 18N between 73W and 75W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of
Mauritania near 18N16W to 07N30W to 07N44W. Other than the
convection referenced in the tropical waves section, scattered
moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 10N
between 20W and 36W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough extends from near Destin, Florida to the SW Gulf.
Scattered thunderstorms are noted in the SW Gulf south of 20N.
Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are
elsewhere east of the trough. Moderate to fresh winds are noted
south of 23N between 90W and 94W. A cold front is analyzed from
near Panama City, Florida to along the south-central Louisiana
coast to near Galveston, Texas. Moderate winds are noted on either
side of the front north of 28N. Mainly gentle winds are across the
remainder of the basin. Seas are mainly 1-2 ft across the basin,
locally higher in and near any thunderstorms.

For the forecast, the surface trough will linger over the
southwest Gulf into mid week, ahead of a cold front currently
moving through the Gulf from near Panama City Beach, Florida to
Galveston, Texas. The weak cold front will shift slowly south then
stall from near Tampa, Florida to Brownsville, Texas by mid week
then dissipate. Looking ahead to later in the week, high pressure
will build over the southeast U.S. following the front,
maintaining gentle to moderate easterly breezes and slight seas.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are across
the north-central and NW Caribbean, including the Gulf of
Honduras. A tropical wave is passing through the central
Caribbean and is described in more detail above. Moderate to fresh
E-SE winds are across the waters east of the tropical wave,
highest in the Gulf of Venezuela. Similar winds are noted offshore
western and central Honduras. Gentle to moderate winds are
elsewhere. Seas are 1-3 ft in the NW Caribbean, except 2-4 ft
offshore western and central Honduras. Seas are 2-4 ft across the
remainder of the basin, except near and through Atlantic passages
where they are up to 8 ft in N-NE swell.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate
seas will persist into today over the Caribbean as a tropical
wave moves across the central portions of the basin. Winds and
seas will start to increase from east to west starting late Wed
over the central Caribbean as high pressure builds north of the
area in the wake of the tropical wave. Northerly swell will
propagate through the Atlantic passages early today and will
gradually subside late Wed. Looking ahead, another tropical wave
will into the eastern Caribbean Fri, and reach the central
Caribbean by Sat.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front is analyzed in the central Atlantic from north of the
area through 31N45W to 27N52W. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are within about 60 nm ahead of the front, as well
as moderate to fresh SW winds. High pressure dominates the basin
west-southwest of the front, centered near 30N59W. Gentle to
moderate winds prevail across the waters west of 50W. Remnant
northerly swell of 7-10 ft which filtered in behind the frontal
system covers the waters north of 18N between 45W and 77W. A
tropical wave is in the central Atlantic along 46W and associated
convection is described above. Fresh to strong winds and seas of
8-10 ft accompany the tropical wave from 16N to 21N between 38W
and 47W.

A tropical wave is in the eastern Atlantic near the Cabo Verde
Islands and associated convection is described above. Moderate to
fresh NE winds prevail north of the monsoon trough to 23N between
19W and 30W, along with 5-7 ft seas. A set of NW swell in the wake
of a cold front is offshore Morrocco and Western Sahara through
the Canary Islands, with seas of 7-10 ft. Gentle to moderate
winds and 4-7 ft seas are across the remainder of the tropical
Atlantic waters.

For the forecast west of 55W, the northerly swell across the
waters east of the Bahamas is expected to subside into mid week.
Looking ahead, the northern end of a tropical wave will pass 55W
south of 22N by early Fri, bringing fresh E winds and locally
rough seas to the area northeast of the northern Leeward Islands.
The wave may weaken as it continues westward toward the Turks and
Caicos Islands and southern Bahamas through Sat. A cold front may
move into the NW waters and stall by the end of the week into the
weekend.

$$
Lewitsky
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