[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 130600
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Tue Sep 13 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0540 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 20W/22W, from 21N
southward, moving westward 15 knots. Precipitation: scattered
strong is within 180 nm to the west of the tropical wave from
13N to 16N, and within 180 nm to the east of the tropical wave
from 16N to 17N. The environmental conditions
appear to be only marginally favorable. Any development of this
wave should be slow to occur, while it moves westward or
west-northwestward in the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean
through the end of the week.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 44W/46W, from 21N
southward, moving westward from 15 knots to 20 knots.
Precipitation: scattered moderate to widely scattered strong is
from 09N to 16N between 38W and 43W. Widely scattered moderate
to isolated strong is within 300 nm to the west of the tropical
wave from 11N to 18N. The precipitation pattern has become a
little more concentrated.  Some additional development of this
system is possible during the next several days, while it moves
generally westward to west-northwestward in the central tropical
Atlantic Ocean, and as it approaches the Windward Islands by the
end of the week.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 69W/70W, from 21N
southward, passing through the eastern parts of the Dominican
Republic, moving westward 20 knots. An upper level cyclonic
circulation center is on top of the eastern parts of Hispaniola.
Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea and the
Atlantic Ocean from 14N to 26N between 60W and 85W.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is in the
areas of the upper level cyclonic wind flow.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of
Mauritania near 18N16W, to 08N30W 07N44W. Precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 300 nm to the
south of the monsoon trough between 18W and 35W, and within 150
nm to the north of the monsoon trough between 26W and 30W.
Isolated moderate is from 10N to 13N between 55W and 62W.

A NE-to-SW oriented upper level trough is from 400 nm to 600 nm
to the northwest of the 20W/22W tropical wave. Comparatively
drier air in subsidence is apparent in the water vapor imagery.
No significant deep convective precipitation accompanies the
upper level trough.

GULF OF MEXICO...

The base of an upper level trough is near 19N99W in Mexico, just
off the NW part of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern
Mexico. A surface trough continues from the Florida Big Bend, to
the central Gulf of Mexico, to the eastern parts of the Isthmus
of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Upper level anticyclonic wind
flow with a ridge covers the south central sections of the Gulf
of Mexico, including the Yucatan Peninsula. Precipitation:
earlier numerous strong, that was in the NW part of the Yucatan
Peninsula during the last four hours, has weakened and
dissipated. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and isolated
moderate to locally strong and other remaining rainshowers, are
to the east and the southeast of the line that starts in SE
Louisiana, to the coast of Mexico near 23N98W. A cold front
passes through the Florida Panhandle, to the Deep South of Texas.

The sea heights range from 2 feet to 3 feet in the deep part of
the SW Gulf of Mexico. The sea heights range from 1 foot to 2
feet elsewhere. Moderate winds are to the north of the cold
front.  Gentle wind speeds or slower are in the remainder of the
area.

A surface trough extending from near Apalachee Bay, Florida to
the SW Gulf will linger in the southwest Gulf into mid week,
ahead of a cold front currently moving through the Gulf from
near Panama City Beach, Florida to Corpus Cristi, Texas. The
weak cold front will shift slowly south then stall from near
Tampa, Florida to Brownsville, Texas by mid week then dissipate.
Looking ahead to later in the week, high pressure will build
over the southeast U.S. following the front, maintaining
gentle to moderate easterly breezes and slight seas.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 69W/70W, from 21N
southward, passing through the eastern parts of the Dominican
Republic, moving westward 20 knots. An upper level cyclonic
circulation center is on top of the eastern parts of Hispaniola.
Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea and the
Atlantic Ocean from 14N to 26N between 60W and 85W.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is in the
areas of the upper level cyclonic wind flow.

The sea heights are 2 feet in the NW corner of the area. The sea
heights range from 3 feet to 4 feet in the remainder of the
Caribbean Sea. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are within 150 nm
to the north of Colombia and Venezuela between 70W and 76W, and
within 90 nm of the coast of Honduras from 85W westward. Gentle
to moderate wind speeds are in the remainder of the Caribbean
Sea.

The monsoon trough is along 10N/11N, from northern Colombia
beyond southern Nicaragua, into the eastern Pacific Ocean.
Precipitation: isolated moderate is from 14N southward from 70W
westward.

Gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will
persist into Tue in the Caribbean Sea, as a tropical wave moves
across the eastern and central portions of the basin. The winds
and the seas  will start to increase from east to west starting
late Wed in the central Caribbean Sea, as high pressure builds
north of the area in the wake of the tropical wave. Northerly
swell will propagate through the Atlantic passages early on Tue
and will gradually subside late Wed. Looking ahead, another
tropical wave will into the eastern Caribbean Fri, and reach the
central Caribbean by Sat.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough, and its associated cold front/surface
trough, are the main weather features for the Atlantic Ocean,
that cover the areas that are from 24N northward from 40W
westward. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is
along the cold front, from 50W northeastward; and from 20N
northward from 63W westward.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 69W/70W, from 21N
southward, passing through the eastern parts of the Dominican
Republic, moving westward 20 knots. An upper level cyclonic
circulation center is on top of the eastern parts of Hispaniola.
Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea and the
Atlantic Ocean from 14N to 26N between 60W and 85W.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is in the
areas of the upper level cyclonic wind flow.

A surface high pressure center is near 30N33W. Surface
anticyclonic wind flow covers the waters from 20N northward
between 20W and the cold front. A 1017 mb high pressure center
is near 33N66W. Surface anticyclonic wind flow is in the waters
that are from the cold front/surface trough northward, and from
the surface trough westward.

Strong wind speeds or faster are from 31N northward between 35W
and 50W, near the cold front.
Moderate to fresh wind speeds are from 13N to 24N from 30W
eastward. Gentle to moderate wind speeds are within 240 nm to
420 nm on either side of the line that extends from 31N23W
20N37W 19N48W 14N60W. The sea heights range from 8 feet to 12
feet from the line 31N10W 24N26W 26N45W 18N57W 20N70W northward.
The sea heights range from 3 feet to 6 feet in the remainder of
the Atlantic Ocean.

Northerly swell of 8 to 12 ft is spreading across the waters
east of the Bahamas. The swell is expected to subside into mid
week. Looking ahead, the northern end of a tropical wave will
pass 55W south of 22N by early Fri, bringing fresh E winds and
locally rough seas to the area northeast of the northern Leeward
Islands. The wave may weaken as it continues westward toward the
Turks and Caicos Islands and southern Bahamas through Sat. A
cold front may move into the NW waters and
stall by the end of the week into the weekend.

$$
mt/jl
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net