[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT41 KNHC 100240
TCDAT1

Hurricane Earl Discussion Number  29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062022
1100 PM AST Fri Sep 09 2022

Earl has maintained its rather large eye that is encircled by
cloud tops as cold as -70 degrees C this evening.  Microwave
satellite imagery also shows that Earl still has a symmetric
inner core and there are no indications of transitioning into an
extratropical cyclone yet.  Satellite Dvorak classifications from
SAB and TAFB were 5.0 and therefore, the initial intensity remains
at 90 kt.

The cyclone has increased in forward speed to the northeast at an
estimated 45/25 kt.  This motion is expected to continue for another
12 hours or so before Earl merges with a mid-latitude trough located
just west of the storm.  Upon merging, Earl is expected to slow down
off the coast of Newfoundland in about 24 hours for a couple of days
while turning eastward.  In about 3 days, Earl is likely to
accelerate eastward over the North Atlantic.  The official track
forecast is slightly faster and a little south of the previous
prediction and close to the corrected model consensus aids.

As stated earlier, there are no signs of Earl beginning its
extratropical transition yet.  However, statistical model guidance
suggests the vertical wind shear will rapidly increase over the
hurricane shortly and induce weakening.  The tropical-storm-force
winds are expected to expand as Earl becomes a post-tropical cyclone
over the next day or so.  This will cause it to continue to produce
large waves and swell in a vast area of the western Atlantic even
as Earl weakens.  There is a high risk of rip current conditions
across the U.S. East Coast, Bermuda, Nova Scotia, and Newfoundland
through the weekend.


KEY MESSAGES:

1.  Swells generated by Earl are affecting Bermuda and the U.S. East
Coast and are beginning to reach Nova Scotia and Newfoundland.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions through the weekend.  Please consult products
from your local weather office.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  10/0300Z 38.1N  55.9W   90 KT 105 MPH
 12H  10/1200Z 41.2N  53.2W   85 KT 100 MPH
 24H  11/0000Z 43.1N  51.7W   70 KT  80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  11/1200Z 43.8N  50.9W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  12/0000Z 44.2N  50.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 60H  12/1200Z 44.5N  48.9W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  13/0000Z 44.7N  46.7W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  14/0000Z 45.0N  42.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  15/0000Z 46.0N  38.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Cangialosi
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