[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT41 KNHC 092043
TCDAT1

Hurricane Earl Discussion Number  28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062022
500 PM AST Fri Sep 09 2022

Earl's large (and at times ragged) eye and surrounding convection
were finally organized enough at 1800 UTC to get consensus Dvorak
classifications of 5.0 from TAFB and SAB, an indication that the
hurricane has strengthened slightly with an estimated intensity of
90 kt. Even then, a mid-latitude frontal feature is quickly
approaching from the northwest, a sign that Earl isn't likely to
last much longer as a relatively symmetric hurricane. In fact,
since 18Z, Earl's eye has already become partially obscured by
clouds once again.

The hurricane continues to accelerate toward the northeast, and is
forecast to accelerate further during the next 12 h ahead of the
aforementioned mid-latitude trough. Earl is forecast to merge with
this feature and slow abruptly in about 36 to 48 h. A slightly
faster eastward motion is forecast around day 4-5. The track model
guidance remains tightly packed around the multi-model consensus,
which is the basis of the NHC forecast once again. Only small
modifications were made to the track forecast with this advisory.

Earl has a few more hours before it begins extratropical transition
and some very short-term further intensification can't be completely
ruled out. However, by tomorrow morning Earl should begin to
steadily weaken as it becomes post-tropical. As noted before, the
wind field of Earl will expand even as its peak winds begin to
decrease, which will cause it to continue to produce large waves and
swell across a large portion of the western Atlantic. This will
contribute to a high risk of rip currents across the U.S. East
Coast, Bermuda, Nova Scotia, and Newfoundland through the weekend.


KEY MESSAGES:

1.  Swells generated by Earl are affecting Bermuda and the U.S. East
Coast and are expected to reach Nova Scotia and Newfoundland tonight
and on Saturday.  These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions through the weekend.  Please consult
products from your local weather office.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  09/2100Z 35.9N  58.7W   90 KT 105 MPH
 12H  10/0600Z 39.0N  55.5W   90 KT 105 MPH
 24H  10/1800Z 42.3N  53.1W   80 KT  90 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  11/0600Z 43.4N  52.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  11/1800Z 43.8N  51.3W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 60H  12/0600Z 44.4N  50.3W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  12/1800Z 44.7N  48.6W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  13/1800Z 45.1N  44.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  14/1800Z 46.0N  40.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky
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