[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 022333
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sat Sep 03 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Danielle is centered near 37.9N 43.5W at 02/2100 UTC
or 780 nm W of the Azores stationary. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 992 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 65 kt with
gusts to 80 kt. Danielle has degraded some this afternoon with
respect to its satellite presentation. Drier mid- level air
appears to have wrapped into the circulation, and the cyclone now
has more of a banded structure around the western and southern
portions of the system. Scattered moderate convection is within
60 nm of the center, except 30 nm in the N semicircle. In its
outer eastern periphery, similar convection is seen from 36N to
31N between 38W-41W. Danielle is forecast to meander over the
open Atlantic during the next couple of days, then slowly turn
toward the northeast early next week. Some additional
strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days.

Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml and
Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml
for more details.

East of the Leeward Islands: A tropical wave has its axis along
58W, with low pressure of 1008 mb analyzed along it near 18N58W.
The circulation associated with the low pressure has become
better defined today and surface pressures have fallen a bit
according to data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
Aircraft. Convection of the numerous moderate to isolated strong
type is increasing within 180 nm SE of the low and 90 nm NE of
the low. Scattered moderate convection has recently developed
within 60 nm of 20N57W. If the observed convection associated
with the low persist through the evening, the system could become
a tropical depression as early as tonight. The disturbance is
expected to move slowly west-northwestward, toward the adjacent
waters of the northern Leeward Islands. Regardless of development,
locally heavy rains may occur over portions of the Leeward
Islands during the next couple of days, and interests in that
area should monitor the progress of the system. This system
presently has a high chance of tropical cyclone formation during
the next 48 hours.

Please read the latest Tropical Weather Outlook issued by
the National Hurricane Center at www.hurricanes.gov and the
latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center
at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for additional
information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 28W, with
low pressure of 1009 mb near 19N. It is moving westward at 10-15
kt. This system is surrounded by dry environmental air, and no
deep convection is presently occurring with it. Possible isolated
showers are noted to its northwest from 20N to 25N between
28W-31W. Significant development is not expected as this system
moves generally west-northwestward into an area of unfavorable
environmental conditions.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Mauritania at
17N16W to 16N23W. It resumes the southwest of the Special
Features tropical wave near 12N30W to 09N43W, where it
transitions to the ITCZ to 11N53W. Scattered moderate convection
is noted from 06N to 10N between 45W-53W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Weak high pressure remains present over the Gulf of Mexico
supporting gentle to moderate return flow with seas in the 1-3 ft
range, except near and to the W of the Yucatan peninsula where a
thermal trough enhances the winds to moderate to fresh speeds
with seas of 4-6 ft. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
noted over the northern Gulf, more concentrated over the NE part.
Upper level divergence supports the latter convective activity.

For the forecast, the weak high pressure will dominate the
weather pattern across the Gulf waters through early next week
maintaining gentle to locally moderate winds and slight to
moderate seas. Moderate winds will pulse to fresh nightly over
portions of the SW Gulf through Sat night due to the diurnal
trough developing each afternoon over the Yucatan peninsula.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper-level low is identified to be located just south of
central Cuba. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are along and
just inland eastern Cuba and over some sections of Jamaica.
Similar shower activity is being enhanced by the eastern part
of East Pacific monsoon trough in the SW Caribbean. Isolated
showers and thunderstorms are elsewhere over most of the western
and central Caribbean waters. An area of scattered showers and
thunderstorms is affecting the Leeward Islands. This convective
activity is ahead of the above mentioned low pressure that is
presently located near 18N58W. Locally heavy rains may occur over
portions of the Leeward Islands during the next couple of days,
and interests in that area should monitor the progress of the
system. Please, see the Special Features section for more
details.

Gentle to moderate trade winds are across the basin, with the
exception of moderate to locally fresh winds in the lee of Cuba,
Gulf of Honduras and just south of Hispaniola per latest ASCAT
data passes.

For the forecast, high pressure across the eastern seaboard of
the U.S. will support moderate to fresh trades across the central
and NW basin through Sat. Afterward, gentle to moderate trade
winds will dominate through Wed. Broad low pressure located east
of the Leeward Islands, associated with a tropical wave, will
move slowly WNW over the next several days and yield generally
light to moderate winds across the eastern Caribbean. Active
weather associated with this feature is expected to impact the
northeastern Caribbean through Mon.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, see the Special Features section for more information on
an area of low pressure, located a couple of hundred miles east
of the Leeward Islands, that presently has a high chance of
tropical cyclone formation. An area of fresh to strong winds
per scatterometer data between this area of low pressure and a
high pressure to the NE covering the waters from 17N to 22N
between 54W and 59W. Two tropical waves are between the W coast
of Africa and the Lesser Antilles. Please, see the tropical waves
section.

A ridge dominates the remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters
with a couple of 1021 mb highs located near 33N38W, and near
33N51W. These highs are located south of Hurricane Danielle. A
surface trough extends from a 1016 mb low that is north of the
area near 35N63W, south-southwest to 30N67W and westward to
near 31N76W.

For the forecast west of 55W, as previously mentioned, a broad
low pressure of 1008 mb is centered east of the Leeward Islands
near 18N58W. It will move west-northwest across the Atlantic
waters adjacent to the northern Leeward Islands through Sat
night. The system could become a tropical depression as early
as tonight. Associated active squalls and thunderstorms will
impact the Atlantic waters adjacent to the northern Leeward
Islands through Sun. Elsewhere, weak high pressure is centered
over the central Atlantic along 33N and extends west-southwest
to near 70W. This pattern is expected to produce gentle to
moderate winds across much of the remainder of the area through
early next week.

$$
Aguirre
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