[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 021759
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Fri Sep 2 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Danielle becomes the first hurricane of the Atlantic Hurricane
Season. At 02/1500 UTC, Danielle is centered near 37.9N 43.3W or
770 nm W of the Azores moving W at 1 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 992 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 65 kt with
gusts to 80 kt. A ragged eye is evident in conventional satellite
imagery. Numerous moderate convection is within about 120 nm W
semicircle and 90 nm NE quadrant. The hurricane is forecast to
meander over the open Atlantic during the next couple of days,
then slowly turn toward the northeast early next week. Some
additional strengthening is forecast during the next couple of
days.

Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml and
Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml
for more details.

East of the Leeward Islands: A 1008 mb low pressure is analyzed
near 17N58W, along a tropical wave with axis at 58W. This system
continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms,
mainly over the eastern portion of the circulation. Environmental
conditions remain only marginally conducive, but any additional
development of the system over the next few days would lead to the
formation of a tropical depression. The disturbance is expected
to move slowly west-northwestward, toward the adjacent waters of
the northern Leeward Islands. Regardless of development, locally
heavy rains may occur over portions of the Leeward Islands during
the next couple of days, and interests in that area should monitor
the progress of the system. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft is currently investigating the system.

Please read the latest Tropical Weather Outlook issued by
the National Hurricane Center at www.hurricanes.gov and the
latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center
at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for additional
information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has its axis along 27W, from 10N to 21N, moving W
at 10 kt. A low pressure of 1007 mb is along the wave near 19N.
Shower activity has slightly increased since yesterday. However,
this system is moving into an area of less favorable environmental
conditions, and significant development is not expected.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon extends from the coast of Mauritania at 17N16W to
17N23W then resumes at 13N29W to 09N43W. The ITCZ stretches from
09N43W to 10N52W. Aside from the convection associated with the
tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is observed from 14N
to 17.5W between 18W and 20W, and from 05N to 10N between 37W and
54W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak high pressure continues to dominate the Gulf of Mexico
supporting gentle to moderate return flow with seas in the 1-3 ft
range, except near and to the W of the Yucatan peninsula where a
thermal trough enhances the winds to moderate to fresh speeds with
seas of 4-6 ft. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted
over the northern Gulf, more concentrated over the NE part. Upper
level divergence supports the latter convective activity.

For the forecast, weak high pressure will dominate the weather
pattern across the Gulf waters through early next week maintaining
gentle to locally moderate winds and slight to moderate seas.
Moderate winds will pulse to fresh nightly over portions of the SW
Gulf through Sat night due to the diurnal trough developing over
the Yucatan peninsula.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Recent satellite derived winds data indicate gentle to moderate
trades across the basin with the exception of moderate to locally
fresh winds in the lee of Cuba, Gulf of Honduras and just S of
Hispaniola.

An upper-level low is spinning over eastern Cuba and Jamaica. This
system supports scattered showers and tstms across this region,
including also the Cayman Islands. Similar shower activity is
being enhanced by the E Pacific monsoon trough in the SW Caribbean.
An area of showers with embedded thunderstorms is affecting the
Leeward Islands. This convective activity is ahead of the above
mentioned low pressure located near 17N58W. Locally heavy rains
may occur over portions of the Leeward Islands during the next
couple of days, and interests in that area should monitor the
progress of the system. Please, see the Special Features section
for more details.

For the forecast, high pressure across the eastern seaboard of
the U.S. will support moderate to fresh trades across the central
and NW basin through Sat. Afterward, gentle to moderate winds will
dominate through Tue night. Broad low pressure located east of
the Leeward Islands, associated with a tropical wave, will move
slowly W-NW over the next several days and yield generally light
to moderate winds across the E Caribbean. Active weather associated
with this feature is expected to impact the NE Caribbean through
Sun.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, see the Special Features section for more information on
an area of low pressure, located several hundred miles east of
the Leeward Islands, that has a medium chance of tropical cyclone
formation. An area of fresh to strong winds is seen per scatterometer
data between this area of low pressure and a high pressure to the
NE covering the waters from 17N to 22N between 54W and 59W. Two
tropical waves are between the W coast of Africa and the Lesser
Antilles. Please, see the tropical waves section.

A ridge dominates the remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters
with a couple of 1021 mb highs located near 32N40W, and near
32N48.5W. These highs are located S of Hurricane Danielle. A
surface trough extends from E of Bermuda near 32N63W to 30.5N70W,
then continues westward to the coast of South Carolina.

For the forecast west of 55W, as previously mentioned, a broad
low pressure of 1008 mb is centered east of the Leeward Islands
near 17N58W. Associated active squalls and thunderstorms will
impact the Atlantic waters adjacent to the northern Leeward
Islands through Sun. Elsewhere, weak high pressure is centered
over the central Atlantic along 32N and extends W-SW to near 70W.
This pattern is expected to produce gentle to moderate winds
across much of the remainder of the area through early next week.

$$
GR
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