[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT45 KNHC 022039
TCDAT5

Hurricane Danielle Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052022
900 PM GMT Fri Sep 02 2022

The satellite presentation of Danielle has degraded some this
afternoon. Drier mid-level air appears to have wrapped into the
circulation, and the cyclone now has more of a banded structure
around the western and southern portions of the system. Recently,
infrared cloud top temperatures have cooled within a small ring of
inner core convection. Based on a blend of the subjective Dvorak
estimates from SAB and TAFB, the initial intensity is held at 65 kt
for this advisory.

Danielle is nearly stationary, as it remains under weak steering
currents with a blocking high pressure ridge positioned over the
North Atlantic. The cyclone is expected to meander or drift slowly
westward over the next couple of days. As the ridge weakens and
retreats westward, Danielle should begin moving northeastward
more-typical mid-latitude flow by Monday. Then, the cyclone is
forecast to gradually accelerate northeastward during the middle of
next week. The track guidance has shifted considerably to the left
this cycle, and the latest NHC track forecast has been adjusted in
this direction, toward the HFIP corrected consensus (HCCA).

The upwelling of cooler water underneath slow-moving Danielle is
likely to prevent much strengthening in the near term. However, the
deep-layer shear is expected to remain weak for the next couple of
days. So, there is still potential for a bit of strengthening if the
cyclone is able to drift farther west of its current position. By
72 h, Danielle is forecast to cross the 26C isotherm and move into
a more highly-sheared environment, which is expected to induce a
weakening trend through the rest of the forecast period. The latest
NHC intensity forecast has been lowered from the previous one and
lies near or just below the various model consensus aids. Around day
5, Danielle is forecast to interact with an upper-level trough and
begin the process of extratropical transition.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/2100Z 37.9N  43.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  03/0600Z 38.0N  43.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  03/1800Z 38.0N  44.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  04/0600Z 38.1N  44.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  04/1800Z 38.3N  44.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
 60H  05/0600Z 39.0N  44.3W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  05/1800Z 39.6N  43.6W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  06/1800Z 41.5N  41.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
120H  07/1800Z 43.0N  37.0W   65 KT  75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Reinhart
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