[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT45 KNHC 021449
TCDAT5

Hurricane Danielle Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052022
300 PM GMT Fri Sep 02 2022

Danielle has continued to strengthen this morning. A ragged eye is
evident in conventional satellite imagery, and deep convection
surrounds much of the northern and western portions of the
circulation. A recent ASCAT-B pass missed the center but caught the
eastern portion of the circulation.  It showed winds up to 52 kt on
the inner edge of the swath and tropical-storm-force winds extending
outward up to 100 n mi in the northeastern quadrant of the cyclone.
The latest objective and subjective satellite estimates support
raising the initial intensity to 65 kt, which makes Danielle the
first Atlantic hurricane of the season.

Atmospheric and oceanic conditions appear generally favorable for
some additional strengthening during the next couple of days. The
hurricane will meander over 27C SSTs in an environment of light to
moderate deep-layer shear. Danielle is a higher-latitude storm, and
so there is the potential for some mid-level dry air entrainment
that could briefly disrupt the cyclone's organization. The latest
intensity guidance consensus still favors some additional
strengthening through Sunday. The official NHC forecast is similar
to the previous one and lies slightly above the model consensus.
After 72 h, weakening is expected to commence as Danielle gains
latitude and moves over cooler waters while it encounters more
deep-layer shear within the mid-latitude westerlies.

Although the 12-hr motion of Danielle has been an easterly drift,
the hurricane appears to have become nearly stationary this
morning. The cyclone will likely continue to meander over the
central Atlantic during the next couple of days under the influence
of a blocking high pressure ridge. This feature is forecast to
weaken by early next week, which should allow Danielle to begin
moving northeastward by 72 h and accelerate deeper into the
mid-latitudes on days 4-5. Once again, it appears Danielle will not
begin extratropical transition until beyond the end of the forecast
period. The NHC track forecast generally lies near the center of
the guidance envelope, close to the reliable consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/1500Z 37.9N  43.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  03/0000Z 38.0N  43.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  03/1200Z 38.1N  43.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  04/0000Z 38.1N  44.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
 48H  04/1200Z 38.5N  44.4W   85 KT 100 MPH
 60H  05/0000Z 38.9N  44.1W   85 KT 100 MPH
 72H  05/1200Z 39.6N  43.1W   85 KT 100 MPH
 96H  06/1200Z 41.0N  40.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
120H  07/1200Z 42.5N  36.4W   70 KT  80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Reinhart
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