[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 311759
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Mon Oct 31 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1755 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Lisa has formed in the central Caribbean Sea. Lisa
is centered near 15.4N 77.6W at 31/1800 UTC, or 315 nm SE of
Grand Cayman, Cayman Islands moving W at 12 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40
kt with gusts to 50 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is evident from 12N to 18N and between 73W and 79W.
Recent scatterometer satellite pass indicate that the strongest
winds are occurring in the northern and eastern quadrants. Slow
strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Lisa
could become a hurricane over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. A
westward to west-northwestward motion is expected over the next
few days. On the forecast track, the center will pass south of
Jamaica today, south of the Cayman Islands tomorrow, and approach
Central America on Wednesday. Please read the latest High Seas
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest NHC
Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for
more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 56W, south of
20N, moving W at 10-15 kt. A few showers are noted near the trough
axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough is mostly confined to the African continent,
entering the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea near 09N13W to
09N16W. The ITCZ stretches from 09N16W to 05N35W to 07N54W.
Divergence aloft and plenty of tropical moisture sustains
scattered moderate convection from 02N to 18N and between 28W and
53W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak stationary front is draped across the Gulf of Mexico,
extending from Apalachicola, Florida to the SW Gulf near 20N95W.
Shallow showers are present near the frontal boundary. A weak
surface trough is found near the coast of Mexico from 19N94W to
22N97W and it is also generating a few showers. The rest of the
basin is under a dry environmental that maintains fairly tranquil
weather conditions. Moderate easterly winds and seas of 2-3 ft are
present S of 25N and W of 90W. Light to gentle winds and seas of
1-3 ft are occurring in the remainder of the Gulf.

For the forecast, the aforementioned stationary front will lift N
over the western Gulf through Tue before dissipating. A trough
will form just offshore Texas on Tue, inducing fresh winds in the
Texas offshore waters through Tue night. Elsewhere, high pressure
will dominate the basin producing mainly moderate NE to E winds.
Southerly return flow is expected to increase over the NW Gulf
toward the end of the forecast period.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on
Tropical Storm Lisa in the Central Caribbean Sea.

Outside of the influence of Tropical Storm Lisa, scattered showers
are noted S of 15N and between 65W and 70W. Only shallow, isolated
showers are found in the rest of the Caribbean Sea. A recent
scatterometer satellite pass indicate that moderate to locally
fresh easterly trade winds are occurring in the central and
eastern Caribbean. Seas in these waters are 3-6 ft. Moderate
easterly winds are also noted in the lee of Cuba, while lighter
winds are present in the remainder of the NW and SW Caribbean.
Seas in these waters are 2-4 ft.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Lisa near 15.5N 77.3W 1003 mb at 11 AM
EDT moving W at 12 kt. Maximum sustained winds 35 kt gusts 45 kt.
Lisa will move to 15.8N 79.0W this evening, 16.3N 81.4W Tue
morning, 16.8N 83.9W Tue evening, 17.1N 86.3W Wed morning,
strengthen to a hurricane near 17.1N 88.2W Wed evening, and move
inland and weaken to a tropical storm near 16.7N 90.0W Thu
morning. Lisa will dissipate early Fri. Otherwise, with the
exception of light to gentle variable winds in the SW basin,
moderate to locally fresh winds are forecast elsewhere through
Fri.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weak cold front extends from 31N61W to 28N68W to 30N75W, while a
surface trough is seen from 31N57W to 26N68W. Scattered moderate
to isolated strong convection is found N of 25N and between 53W
and 60W. Moderate to locally fresh westerly winds are occurring N
of 27N and between 43W and 69W, along with seas of 6-9 ft. The
highest seas are found near 31N67W.

The rest of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by an expansive
subtropical high positioned near 28N35W, supporting fairly
tranquil weather conditions. The pressure gradient between the
high pressure and lower pressures in the deep tropics result in
moderate to fresh easterly trade winds S of a line from the Canary
Islands to the NE Leeward Islands. Seas in these waters are 5-8
ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and seas of 2-5 ft
prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, a low pressure system is centered N
of the area near 35N62W with a cold front extending to 31N61W to
28N67W. The cold front will move E across the waters N of 27N
through Wed evening when the front is expected to move E of 55W,
before dissipating. Otherwise, moderate to locally fresh trade
winds will persist in the Great Bahama Bank and the approaches of
the Windward Passage through Thu.

$$
DELGADO
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