[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 311038
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Mon Oct 31 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1020 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Potential Tropical Cyclone (PTC) Fifteen is centered near 15.8N
76.1W at 31/0900 UTC, or 140 nm SSE of Kingston, Jamaica moving W
at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is evident within 120 nm N
semicircle, 210 nm SW quadrant and 310 nm SW quadrant. ASCAT
satellite scatterometer data from Sunday night reveal the
strongest E to SE winds are occurring north and east of the
center. PTC Fifteen is expected to gradually strengthen and could
become a tropical storm later today. It will continue on a
general westward track with little change in forward speed for the
next several days. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast
issued by the National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest NHC
Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for
more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 54W from 06N-18N, moving
W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
noted from 06N-13N between 50W-59W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The ITCZ stretches from the coast of Africa near the border of
Guinea and Sierra Leone near 09N13W to 06N32W to 11N51W, then
continues W of a tropical wave from 10N56W to 10N61W. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 03N-13N between
31W-50W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends southward from Apalachicola, Florida to
26N86W, then continues SW as a stationary front to 20N95W to
20N97W. A 1017 mb high pressure is centered in the NW Gulf near
27N94W. No significant precipitation is noted. Gentle winds cover
most of the basin, with seas of 2 to 3 ft.

For the forecast, the front will stall this morning before
gradually lifting N over the northern Gulf by Tue night before
dissipating. A trough will form Tue just offshore Texas, inducing
fresh to locally strong winds in the Texas offshore waters, before
dissipating Tue night. Moderate NE to E winds will then dominate
the basin Wed through Thu.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for information about
Potential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen in the Central Caribbean Sea.
Winds over 20 kt and seas over 8 ft associated with Fifteen are
currently in the area of 14N to 19N between 73W and 78W.

A surface trough extends NE-SW through PTC Fifteen. Convergent
winds near the trough axis are triggering scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms near the NE coast of Nicaragua, and along
the southern coast of Hispaniola. Farther south, convergent
trades are producing scattered moderate convection to the north of
Venezuela, from 11N-14N between 64W-69W, including over portions
of the ABC Islands.

Outside the influence of PTC Fifteen, gentle to moderate NE to E
trades and seas of 2 to 4 ft are present over the northwestern
portion of the basin, while moderate E trades and seas of 3-4 ft
are occurring in the E Caribbean.

For the forecast, Potential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen will move to
near 16.1N 77.5W this afternoon while becoming a tropical storm,
to near 16.8N 82.2W Tue afternoon, strengthen to a hurricane near
17.4N 86.8W Wed afternoon, before moving inland into Central
America late Wed night. Otherwise, with the exception of light to
gentle variable winds in the SW basin, moderate to locally fresh
winds are forecast elsewhere through Thu.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N66W to 30N69W to 31N72W. A surface
trough extends from 31N63W to 27.5N72W. No significant weather is
occurring with these features. However, fresh SW to W winds and
seas of 7-8 ft in N to NE swell are likely occurring north of 30N
between 55W-66W. Enhanced upper-level diffluence well east of the
surface trough is inducing scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms within 60 nm either side of a line from 27N61W to
31N56.5W. A broad upper-level low is over the central Atlantic
near 22N39W. Isolated showers are near the low. The subtropical
surface ridge extends from a 1019 mb high pressure near 31N39W to
a 1018 mb high pressure near 29N41W to 24N62W to about 25N70W.
Light to gentle winds and 4-5 ft seas are near the ridge axis. To
the south, fresh trades and 6-8 ft seas prevail across the tropics
to the north of the ITCZ. Seas of 6-7 ft prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front extending from 31N66W
to 30N69W to 31N72W will move E across the waters N of 27N
through Wed evening when the front is expected to move E of 55W,
before dissipating. Otherwise, moderate to locally fresh trade
winds will persist in the Great Bahama Bank and the approaches of
the Windward Passage through Thu. Increasing winds and seas are
possible by Fri north of 28N.

$$
Hagen
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