[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 282243
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sat Oct 29 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2240 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning:

A cold front moving off the coast of Texas this afternoon will
move southeastward through the weekend. Fresh to strong northerly
winds will follow behind the front and should reach gale force
in the western Bay of Campeche, offshore from near Veracruz,
Mexico on Sat afternoon. Seas are expected to build to 8 to 9 ft
through Sat evening. Please refer to the High Seas Forecast
issued by NHC at www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shmtl for more
information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends along 32W, from 04N to
10N, moving west at 10 1o 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection
is observed from 01N to 05N, between 35W to 38W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave extends along 52W/53W, from 08N
to 19N, moving west at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
evident from 11N to 13N between 56W and 58W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal/Gambia near
13.5N16.5W to 11N20W. The ITCZ extends from 11N20W to 08N30W.
Another segment of the ITCZ from 08N35W to 06N53W. No significant
convection is evident, other than what was described above in the
Tropical Wave section.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section for information on a Gale
Warning for the western Bay of Campeche.

A cold front is moving off the coast of Texas, followed by fresh
NW winds. Fresh to strong southerly winds are noted ahead of the
front. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are evident along the
frontal boundary. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds are noted
elsewhere across the basin, per buoy data and earlier
scatterometer satellite data. Buoy and altimeter satellite data
also indicate slight to moderate wave heights elsewhere.

For the forecast, in addition to the gale force winds described
above in the Special Features section, Fresh to strong N winds
will the front W of 94W through Sat afternoon. The front will
reach the Florida Panhandle to central Bay of Campeche by Sun
afternoon. The front will stall and dissipate in the eastern Gulf
Sun night into Mon.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A sharp mid to upper trough extends from the western Atlantic
near 31N70W to central Hispaniola. An associated surface trough
reaches from Cabo Beata on the southern coast of Hispaniola
southeastward to Margarita Island off mainland Venezuela.
Scattered showers are noted over portions of the eastern
Caribbean, east of the surface trough. There had been flash flood
concerns for Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, but this threat
has lessened as upper winds have become less favorable for
widespread flooding. Similarly, while showers will persist over
the Dominican Republic, no widespread flooding is anticipated
over the next couple of days. Scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms may persist across the Windward Passage and the
southeast Caribbean in an area of increased deep layer moisture
and low level convergence, between the trough to west and a
tropical wave approaching from the east. Moderate to fresh east
winds are noted east of the trough, with moderate wave heights.
Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and slight seas are noted.

For the forecast, the deep layered trough will lift northward
tonight. A broad area of low pressure over the eastern Caribbean
Sea continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms extending from the Windward Islands west-
northwestward for several hundred miles. Environmental conditions
are forecast to be conducive for gradual development over the
next few days, and a tropical depression is likely to form this
weekend or early next week while the disturbance moves slowly
westward or west- northwestward over the central Caribbean Sea.
Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is possible
over portions of the Lesser Antilles, the Virgin Islands, and
Puerto Rico through this weekend. This system has a low chance of
development in the next 48 hours and a high chance in the next 5
days. Expect scattered showers and thunderstorms to continue
through the weekend with the trough and potential developing low.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A sharp mid to upper trough extends from the western Atlantic
near 31N70W to central Hispaniola. An earlier scatterometer
satellite pass showed a compact 1012 mb low pressure system
southwest of Bermuda near 31.5N67W. A trough extends from the low
to central Hispaniola, associated with the mid to upper trough.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are evident within 60 nm
either side of the surface trough. Gentle to moderate NE to E
winds are noted east of 35W, with moderate to fresh winds east of
35W. Wave heights of 8 to 9 ft are noted north of 20N east of
45W, with mostly moderate wave heights elsewhere.

For the forecast west 55W, environmental conditions are forecast
to remain only marginally conducive for development of the 1012
mb low near near 31.5N67W, and any additional development should
be slow to occur over the next day or so. By late Sat, upper-
level winds are forecast to become even less favorable, and the
low is expected to begin interacting with an approaching frontal
system. Therefore, development after that time is not
anticipated. This system has a low chance of development in the
next 48 hours and 5 days. This system will eventually bring
moderate to rough seas in NE swell through the weekend west of
70W.

$$
Christensen
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net