[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 281634
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Fri Oct 28 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1630 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning:

A cold front is forecast to enter the northwestern Gulf of Mexico
this afternoon, then move southeastward through the weekend.
Fresh to strong northerly winds will follow behind the front and
should reach gale force in the western Bay of Campeche, offshore
from near Veracruz, Mexico on Sat afternoon. Seas are expected to
build to 8 to 9 ft through Sat evening. Please refer to the High
Seas Forecast issued by NHC at
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shmtl for more information.

Eastern Caribbean Heavy Rainfall: A deep-layered trough continues
to persist near 69W over the eastern Caribbean Basin. Abundant
moisture along with divergent winds aloft are triggering
widespread heavy showers and strong thunderstorms from the
Windward Islands northwestward to Puerto Rico and the Virgin
Islands, including Trinidad and Tobago. Locally heavy rainfall
will elevate the potential for flooding in these locations today.
Please visit the National Weather Service San Juan Forecast
Office website at www.weather.gov/sju for the latest details on
heavy rainfall and flooding in Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin
Islands. For the Windward Islands, refer to your local weather
offices for more information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends along 24W, from 01N to
10N, moving west at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
observed from 01N to 09N, between 24W to 32W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave extends along 52W, from 08N to
19N, moving west at 15 kt. No significant convection is occurring
at this time.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal near 14N17W
to 12N19W. The ITCZ extends from 05N29W to 03N48W. In addition to
convection associated with a tropical wave described above,
scattered weak convection is observed along the monsoon trough
from 11N to 13N, between 16W and 22W. Scattered moderate
convection also observed along the ITCZ from 01N to 05N, between
30W and 40W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section for information on a Gale
Warning for the western Bay of Campeche.

A surface trough is supporting a line of thunderstorms roughly 60
nm offshore eastern Texas and western Louisiana. A weak
stationary front has dissipated this morning, allowing for fresh
southerly return flow to become established in the western Gulf.
Seas are generally 2-4 ft, with an area of 4-6 ft in the NW Gulf.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh return flow will prevail
across the W Gulf this morning ahead of the next approaching cold
front. Strong winds are expected near the SE Texas coast. The cold
front will push off the Texas coast this afternoon and move
across the basin through the weekend. Fresh to strong N winds
following the front W of 94W through Sat afternoon. Brief gales
are expected across the Veracruz area Sat morning and end by the
afternoon. The front will reach the Florida Panhandle to central
Bay of Campeche by Sun afternoon. The front will stall and
dissipate in the eastern Gulf Sun night into Mon.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the Special Features section for more information on
widespread convection and associated heavy rainfall over the
eastern basin, including Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands.

A surface low has formed along a trough in the southeastern
Caribbean Sea. Moderate to fresh SE winds are observed in the
eastern Caribbean with 4-6 ft seas. Environmental conditions are
forecast to be conducive for gradual development over the next few
days and a tropical depression is likely to form this weekend or
early next week while the disturbance moves slowly westward or
west-northwestward over the central Caribbean Sea. The current
Tropical Weather Outlook assigns a low probability of tropical
cyclone development through 48 hours and a high probability
through five days. Outside of the eastern Caribbean, winds are
gentle to moderate with slight seas.

For the forecast, a deep layered upper trough extending N to S
across the central Caribbean will lift northward into the Atlantic
this weekend. A broad area of low pressure over the southeastern
Caribbean Sea is producing a large area of disorganized showers
and thunderstorms extending across the eastern Caribbean from the
Windward Islands west-northwestward for several hundred miles,
mostly E of 70W. Environmental conditions are forecast to be
conducive for gradual development over the next few days, and a
tropical depression is likely to form this weekend or early next
week while the disturbance moves slowly westward or west-
northwestward over the central Caribbean Sea. Regardless of
development, locally heavy rainfall is possible over portions of
the Lesser Antilles, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico through
this weekend. This system has a low chance of development in the
next 48 hours and a high chance in the next 5 days. Expect
scattered showers and thunderstorms to continue through the
weekend with the trough and potential developing low.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
moving across the basin.

A stationary front extends from 31N79W to 29N81W. NW of this
boundary, fresh NE winds and 5-7 ft seas are observed. SE of the
front, moderate NE winds and 4-6 ft seas are observed. A sharp
surface trough is analyzed from 31N67W to 20N70W. A 1014 mb low
pressure center has developed along this boundary near 30N67W.
This feature has a low probability of tropical cyclone
development. East of the trough, winds are moderate from the SE
with 4-6 ft seas.

In the central and eastern Atlantic, a surface ridge extends from
31N47W to 27N30W to 31N13W. North of the ridge, winds are moderate
from the NW-SW. South of the ridge, winds are moderate from the
E-NE. 8-10 ft swell extends as far south as 20N. Elsewhere, gentle
to moderate easterly trades prevail with 4-8 ft seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, a surface trough over the
southwestern Atlantic continues to produce scattered showers and
thunderstorms mainly between 63W-68W. A 1014 mb surface low
pressure with has formed along the the northern portion of the
trough near 31N67W. Environmental conditions are forecast to be
only marginally conducive, and any development should be slow to
occur. By late Saturday, upper-level winds are forecast to become
even less favorable for development, and the low is expected to
begin interacting with an approaching frontal system. This system
has a low chance of development in the next 48 hours and 5 days. A
frontal system to the north of the area will interact with the
low and could bring moderate to rough seas in NE swell through the
weekend west of 70W.

$$
Flynn
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