[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 261803
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Wed Oct 26 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1730 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Heavy Rainfall:

A deep layer central Caribbean Sea trough is drifting eastward.
A surface trough extends from Haiti, through the SE Bahamas, to
a 1009 mb low pressure center that is near 30N71W, to 31N71W.
Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong are from 19N
northward between 58W and the surface trough. A 65W/66W tropical
wave will move westward slowly, through the eastern Caribbean
Sea through late Thursday. Expect numerous rainshowers with
thunder in the eastern Caribbean Sea, including in Puerto Rico,
in the US/UK Virgin Islands, and in the Dominican Republic.
Frequent lightning, gusty winds, and low visibilities in heavy
rain are expected with the strong convective precipitation. It
is likely for excessive heavy rainfall to result in localized
flooding in parts of  Puerto Rico, the US/UK Virgin Islands, and
eastern Hispaniola through at least Thursday. Residents in these
locations should monitor this developing situation closely, and
stay informed with their local weather offices and authorities.
The environmental conditions appear to be conducive for some
gradual subtropical development of this system during the next
few days while it drifts northward. The system is forecast to
meander in the subtropical western Atlantic Ocean to the west or
southwest of Bermuda. The upper level winds are forecast to become
less conducive for development by the end of the weekend. It is
possible that an area of low pressure may form in the eastern
Caribbean Sea during the upcoming weekend. The environmental
conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development.
The disturbance is forecast to move generally westward or west-
northwestward, into the central Caribbean Sea early next week.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 42W/43W, from 18N
southward. The wave is moving westward about 15 knots. A surface
trough is along 25N42W 19N43W. Precipitation: isolated moderate
to locally strong is within 210 nm on either side of the surface
trough. Rainshowers are possible within 120 nm on either side of
the tropical wave.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 65W/66W, from 19N
southward, moving westward 10 knots. Upper level cyclonic wind
flow covers the Atlantic Ocean and the Caribbean Sea from 10N
northward between 45W and 70W. Precipitation: scattered to
numerous moderate to strong is within 180 nm to the east of the
tropical wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains Guinea near
10N14W to 08N16W. The ITCZ continues from 08N16W, to 07N18W
07N26W 12N41W 10N45W 11N60W. Precipitation: scattered to
numerous moderate to strong is from the ITCZ southward between
55W and 61W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is
from 03N to 15N between 30W and 44W. Broken to overcast high
level clouds are from 10N to 20N from 33W eastward. Isolated
moderate to locally strong is in the remainder of the area that
is from the monsoon trough/ITCZ southward from 53W eastward.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front passes through the Florida Big Bend, into the
central Gulf of Mexico, to the northern sections of the Isthmus
of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Precipitation: isolated
moderate to locally strong is within 180 nm on either side of
the cold front.

Moderate to fresh northerly winds, and wave heights that range
from 5 feet to 7 feet, are to the north and northwest of the
cold front, and to the N of 22N. NW to N winds to 30 knots, and
sea heights that are reaching 9 feet, are from 22N southward,
offshore of Veracruz. A 1014 mb high pressure center is near
25N82W. Light to gentle winds, and sea heights that range from 2
feet to 4 feet, are in the SE Gulf of Mexico.

A cold front from the central Florida Panhandle to the central
Bay of Campeche will continuing moving SE and reach the Florida
Big Bend to the eastern Bay of Campeche this afternoon. The
front will lift northward on Thu into Fri. Moderate to fresh
return flow will develop across NW portions Thu night through
Fri, ahead of the next approaching cold front, which should move
off the Texas coast Fri afternoon. This next front will slowly
make its way across the Gulf through the weekend.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the
potential for heavy rain in the
Caribbean Sea during this week.

A surface trough extends from the east-central sections of the
Yucatan Peninsula to the eastern parts of El Salvador.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is within 75
nm on either side of the surface trough.

Moderate to locally fresh E to SE winds, and sea heights that
range from 4 feet to 6 feet in E swell, are to the east of the
65W/66W tropical wave. Moderate NE winds are in the lee of
eastern Cuba. Moderate easterly winds have been in the Gulf of
Honduras. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere in the western
half of the area, where the sea heights generally are ranging
from 2 feet to 4 feet.

The monsoon trough is along 08N/10N from Colombia along 74W,
westward, beyond Panama and Costa Rica, and into the tropical NE
Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally
strong is from 14N southward from 70W westward, in the SW corner
of the Caribbean Sea.

A weak pressure gradient across the region will maintain gentle
to moderate NE to E winds across the basin W of 70W through Fri.
A deep layered trough N to S across the central Caribbean will
drift E today and then gradually lift northward through the
remainder of the week. A tropical wave along 65W
will move westward and become absorbed within the trough along
68W tonight through Thu night. This interaction will induce
numerous thunderstorms across the eastern half of the basin
through Thu. Fresh to locally strong trade winds and increasing
E swell across the Tropical Atlantic waters will gradually shift
into the far eastern Caribbean through Thu. An area of low
pressure could form over the eastern Caribbean Sea by early this
weekend. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive
for gradual development as the disturbance moves generally
westward or west-northwestward into the central Caribbean early
next week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 31N20W to 29N24W. A dissipating
stationary front continues from 29N24W to 26N36W 26N45W, beyond
31N48W. A surface trough curves along 26N31W 20N30W 17N36W.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is within 180
nm on either side of the frontal boundary, and between the surface
trough and the front.

A 1018 mb high pressure center is just to the south of the
Canary Islands near 26N16W.

N swell will follow the frontal boundary, bringing seas of 8-12
ft roughly to the waters N of 29N and E of 45W, from today into
Thursday. The sea heights range from 5 feet to 8 feet in the
tropical Atlantic Ocean between 35W and the Lesser Antilles.

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms persist across
the Atlantic waters between 61W and 71W that is associated with
a deep layered upper trough. At the surface, a weak trough
extends N to S along 72W. The deep layered trough will drift
slowly eastward through Thu and produce very active
weather. Low pres is expected to develop near 29N68W by Thu
afternoon and move to N of the area by Fri. Fresh to strong
winds are expected to develop Thu night into Fri as the low
moves north.

$$
mt/ar
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