[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 261039
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Wed Oct 26 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning:
A cold front from extends from the central Florida Panhandle to
the central Bay of Campeche along 94W. Gale force NW winds behind
the front were occurring offshore of the Veracruz, Mexico area in
recent hours, but have diminished below gale force since midnight.
These strong NW winds are expected to persist between the front
and the Veracruz area waters through sunrise, then quickly
diminish this morning. Wave heights with these winds continue at 7
to 9 ft, and will also subside later this morning. Please see the
High Sea Forecast issued by NHC at:
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more information.

Eastern Caribbean Sea Heavy Rainfall:
A deep-layer trough extends across the central Caribbean from
Haiti to near northwest Colombia, and is drifting slowly eastward.
A wide band of showers and thunderstorms continues on the east
side of the trough from 64W to 70W, and is affecting areas from
northern Colombia and western Venezuela northward across Puerto
Rico and the Virgin Islands and into the regional Atlantic waters
to the north. A tropical wave along 65W has begun to transport
moisture that is interacting with the upper trough, and will move
slowly westward across the eastern Caribbean through late Thu.
These two systems will combine to produce numerous showers and
thunderstorms over the eastern Caribbean Sea, including Puerto
Rico, the US/UK Virgin Islands and the Dominican Republic. The San
Juan, Puerto Rico Doppler radar shows showers with scattered
strong thunderstorms over the eastern half of Puerto Rico and and
across the Virgin Islands. This weather has been gradually
shifting eastward overnight. Frequent lightning, gusty winds and
low visibilities in heavy rain are expected with the strong
thunderstorms. Excessive heavy rainfall will likely result in
localized flooding across portions of Puerto Rico, the US/UK
Virgin Islands, and eastern Hispaniola through at least Thu.
Residents in these locations should monitor this developing
situation closely and stay informed with their local weather
offices and authorities.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 42W from 03N
to 15N. It is moving westward near 15 kt. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is near the wave axis mainly from 08N
to 13N between 37W and 42W.

Another tropical wave is over the eastern Caribbean with axis
along 65W. It is moving westward near 15 kt. Overnight ASCAT data
showed a sharp surface trough associated with the wave. Scattered
moderate to strong convection is seen within 120 nm either side
of the wave axis, and has begun to increase to the NW of the wave
across the Virgin Islands and eastern Puerto Rico.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic along the coast of
Guinea near 10N14W to 08N16W. The ITCZ continues from 08N16W to
07N24W to 08.5N40W, then resumes from 08N44W to 10N60W. Scattered
moderate to strong convection is noted from 05.5N to 15.5N
between 27W and 36W, and within 120 nm S of the ITCZ between 55W
and 61W.

The eastern segment of the eastern Pacific monsoon trough extends
into the southwestern Caribbean Sea roughly along 10N/11N and to
near northwest Colombia. Widely scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is seen S of the trough to 06N across Costa Rica and
Panama and into the local Pacific waters.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front from extends from the central Florida Panhandle to
the central Bay of Campeche along 94W. Refer to the Special
Features section above for more details. Isolated clusters of
moderate convection are seen along and behind the front near
Veracruz, and within 180 nm E of the front to the N of 25N.
Moderate to fresh northerly winds and wave heights of 5-7 ft are
behind the front and to the N of 21.5N. S of 21.5N NW to N winds
to 30 kt and seas to 9 ft prevail offshore of Veracruz. A weak
ridge dominates the eastern Gulf where light to gentle winds and
seas of 2-4 ft prevail.

For the forecast, the cold front will continuing moving SE and
reach the Florida Big Bend to central Bay of Campeche this
afternoon, before gradually dissipating from near Tampa Bay to the
SW Gulf Wed night into Thu. Strong NW winds from the front to
Veracruz, Mexico will diminish quickly this morning. Moderate to
fresh return flow will develop across NW portions Thu night
through Fri, ahead of the next approaching cold front, which
should move off the Texas coast Fri afternoon. This next front
will stall and weaken in the central Gulf this weekend.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section for potential heavy rain
across the eastern Caribbean Sea this week.

The deep-layer trough across the central basin continues to
support a 180 nm wide band of numerous showers and scattered
thunderstorms extending from NW Venezuela NNE across Puerto Rico
and the Virgin Islands. Satellite derived wind data indicate
moderate to locally fresh E to SE winds behind the tropical wave
located along 65W. Seas have recently built to 4-6 ft in E
swell. Scattered moderate to strong convection has recently begun
to flare up across the SE Caribbean behind the wave. Moderate NE
winds are in the lee of eastern Cuba while moderate easterly winds
are noted in the Gulf of Honduras. Light to gentle winds are seen
elsewhere across the western basin, where seas are generally 2-4
ft.

For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient across the region will
maintain gentle to moderate NE to E winds across the basin W of
70W through Fri. A deep layered trough N to S across the central
Caribbean will drift E today and then gradually lift northward
through the remainder of the week. A tropical wave along 65W
will move westward and become absorbed within the trough along
68W Wed night through Thu night. This interaction will induce
numerous thunderstorms across the eastern half of the basin
tonight through Thu. Fresh to locally strong trade winds and
increasing E swell across the Tropical Atlantic waters will
gradually shift into the far eastern Caribbean through Wed. An
area of low pressure could form over the eastern Caribbean Sea
by early this weekend. Environmental conditions are forecast to
be conducive for gradual development as the low drifts westward
or west-northwestward over the eastern Caribbean this weekend.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A deep layered trough of low pressure stretches from the central
Caribbean along 72W, northward across Hispaniola to the
southwestern Atlantic along 73W-74W, and is producing a broad
area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms between 62W and
70W. At the surface, a weak trough is analyzed along 71W/72W with
a 1010 mb low pressure analyzed near 27N72.5W. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for some gradual subtropical
development of this system over the next few days while it drifts
north-northeastward. The system is then forecast to meander over
the subtropical western Atlantic to the west or southwest of
Bermuda. Upper-level winds are forecast to become less conducive
for development by the end of the weekend.

A cold front extends from a 1008 mb low pressure located mid-way
between the Azores and the Madeira Islands to 28N30W to 31N46W
where it becomes stationary. Mainly low clouds and possible showers
are along the frontal boundary. N swell will follow this front
bringing seas of 8-12 ft roughly across the waters N of 29N and E
of 45W Wed into Thu. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
are observed from 22N to 30N between 40W and 52W associated with
an upper-level trough. The remainder of the Atlantic forecast
waters in under the influence of high pressure with a center of
1016 mb situated SW of the Canary Islands near 24.5N25W. Seas of
5-8 ft are noted over the tropical Atlantic between 35W and the
Lesser Antilles.

For the forecast west of 55W, the deep layered trough will drift
slowly eastward to 70W through Thu and continue to produce very
active weather E of the trough axis. Low pres is expected to
develop near 28N68W by Thu afternoon and move to near 31N68W early
Sat, where it will remain nearly stationary through the upcoming
weekend.

$$
Stripling
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