[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 220557
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sat Oct 22 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0520 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 42W/43W, from 19N
southward. The wave is moving westward 10 knots. Precipitation:
scattered moderate to strong is from 09N to 11N between 40W and
42W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is in the remainder of
the area that is within 300 nm to the east of the tropical wave
from 08N to 17N.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 52W/53W, from 22N
southward, moving westward from 10 knots to 15 knots.
Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate and
isolated strong, is from 20N to 25N between 45W and 60W. Upper
level cyclonic wind flow, with an upper level inverted trough,
covers the Atlantic Ocean from 26N southward between the Cabo
Verde Islands and the 52W/53W tropical wave.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 65W/66W, from Puerto Rico
southward, moving westward 10 knots. An upper level trough is
curving from the area of the 29N43W 1012 mb low pressure center,
toward the 31N56W 27N52W surface trough, toward the NE Caribbean
Sea, to the coast of Venezuela.

An upper level trough has been in the same area during the last
few days. Precipitation: Isolated moderate to locally strong is
in the areas of the upper level cyclonic wind flow, and within
270 nm on either side of the tropical wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal border areas of
Guinea and Guinea-Bissau, to 09N20W 07N26W 08N40W.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is
from 13N southward from 40W eastward.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A broad surface ridge extends from the Florida Panhandle/the
Florida Big Bend, southwestward, to the coastal plains of Mexico
near 19N97W. Moderate or slower wind speeds span the Gulf of
Mexico. The sea heights range from 1 foot to 3 feet everywhere.

Weak high pressure centered along the NE Gulf coast will
dominate this weekend as it drifts NE. This pattern will allow
for fresh S winds to develop across the W Gulf Sat, with strong
winds expected NW portions Sat night through Mon night. A cold
front will move into the NW Gulf Tue morning and reach from SE
Louisiana to the western Bay of Campeche Tue night, followed by
fresh northerly winds.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front passes through the Bahamas near 24N76W,
beyond Cuba near 22N78W, to the NW coast of Honduras.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is
within 240 nm to the southeast of the stationary front,
including in parts of Nicaragua, Honduras, and El Salvador.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 65W/66W, from Puerto Rico
southward, moving westward 10 knots. An upper level trough is
curving from the area of the 29N43W 1012 mb low pressure center,
toward the 31N56W 27N52W surface trough, toward the NE Caribbean
Sea, to the coast of Venezuela.

An upper level trough has been in the same area during the last
few days. Precipitation: Isolated moderate to locally strong is
in the areas of the upper level cyclonic wind flow, and within
270 nm on either side of the tropical wave.

The monsoon trough is along 09N/10N from Colombia along 74W,
westward, beyond Panama and Costa Rica, and into the tropical NE
Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally
strong is from 13N southward from 73W westward, in the SW corner
of the Caribbean Sea.

Moderate to fresh northerly winds, and sea heights reaching 6
feet, are in the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea. The sea heights
range from 3 feet to 4 feet in the eastern one-third of the
area, and they range from 2 feet to 4 feet in the remainder of
the area. Fresh winds are in the coastal waters of NW Venezuela
and Colombia. Mostly moderate winds or slower, cover the
remainder of the Caribbean Sea.

A stationary front extends from central Cuba to the N coast of
Honduras along 87W. This front will meander and gradually
dissipate this weekend. Fresh N to NE winds will prevail behind
the front in the NW Caribbean Sea through tonight before
diminishing. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate trade winds and
slight to moderate seas are expected through early next week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front passes through 31N68W, to the Bahamas near
24N76W, beyond Cuba near 22N78W, to the NW coast of Honduras. A
surface trough is about 180 nm to the northwest of the
stationary front, from Cuba northeastward. Precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong is to the northwest of the
line 31N63W 20N70W, to NE Nicaragua.

The sea heights range from 7 feet to 9 feet, generally, from 10N
northward from 60W eastward. The comparatively highest sea
heights are ranging from 10 feet to 11 feet, from 27N northward
between 48W and 53W. Some sea heights are ranging from 4 feet to
6 feet, elsewhere, from 10N northward from 60W eastward. The sea
heights range from 3 feet to 6 feet in the remainder of the
Atlantic Ocean. Fresh winds are from 17N to 25N from 35W
eastward. Moderate wind speeds or slower are in the remainder of
the Atlantic Ocean.

A 1012 mb low pressure center is near 29N43W. Strong to near
gale-force winds are within 420 nm of the center in the NE
quadrant. A surface trough is along 27N52W 30N56W beyond 31N56W.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 25N
northward between 30W and 60W. The comparatively highest sea
heights are ranging from 10 feet to 11 feet, from 27N northward
between 48W and 53W. Fresh to strong winds are from 25N between
44W and 54W. It is possible that the 1012 mb low pressure center
may acquire some subtropical or tropical characteristics by
early next week. The environmental conditions are forecast to be
only marginally conducive for development during the next few
days. The low pressure center is forecast to move westward to
west-northwestward from 20 mph to 25 mph in the subtropical
Atlantic Ocean. More development appears to be unlikely, as the
system is forecast to move into cooler waters and encounter
stronger upper level winds, by the middle of the next week.
Please, refer to the following webpage for more details:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml.

A surface trough extends from 31N71W across the NW Bahamas to
the N coast of Cuba along 80W. A stationary front from SW of
Bermuda through central Cuba will dissipate this weekend. The
surface trough will lift N through the weekend, with low
pressure expected to develop near 29N76W Sat afternoon then move
N of the area by Sun afternoon. The pressure gradient between
the low and high pressure over the southeastern U.S. will allow
for northeast winds over the waters north of the Bahamas to
strengthen to fresh to strong speeds Sat through Sun before
diminishing.

$$
mt
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