[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 212255
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sat Oct 22 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2245 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is analyzed with axis along 41W,
from 06N to 18N. The wave is moving west at 10 kt. Convection near
the wave is described in the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ Section.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is analyzed with axis along 53W,
from 04N to 21N, moving west at 15 kt. Scattered showers are in
the vicinity of the wave axis, mainly north of 15N.

A Caribbean tropical wave is along 63W, from 04N to 17N, moving
west at 10 kt. No convection is noted at this time.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough exits western Africa near 13N17W to 09N37W.
Scattered moderate convection is from 04N to 10N between 24W and
38W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging prevails across the basin, with gentle anticyclonic
winds and 2-4 ft seas.

For the forecast, weak high pressure centered along the NE Gulf
coast will dominate this weekend as it moves slowly NE. This
motion will allow for fresh S winds to develop in the far NW Gulf
Sat night, with strong winds forecast Sun night through Mon night.
A cold front will move into the NW Gulf Tue morning and reach
from SE Louisiana to the western Bay of Campeche Tue night,
followed by fresh northerly winds.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave
across the basin.

A stationary front extends from the coast of Cuba near 21N79W to
the Gulf of Honduras near 16N88W. Scattered moderate convection
is within 160 nm ahead of the front. NW of the front, seas are
4-6 ft with moderate to fresh NE flow. Elsewhere in the Caribbean,
gentle trades prevail with seas of 2-4 ft.

For the forecast, the aforementioned stationary front extends from
central Cuba to the N coast of Honduras along 88W. This front
will gradually dissipate this weekend. Fresh N to NE winds will
prevail behind the front over the NW Caribbean through tonight
before diminishing. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate trade winds and
slight to moderate seas are expected through early next week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
across the basin.

A 1012 mb low pressure is centered over the N Bahamas near
26N78W. The latest scatterometer depicts fresh to strong NE winds
north of the low pressure center. A trough extends from the low to
27N75W, while a stationary front extends from the low to 24N82W.

To the east, a cold front extends from 31N68W to 26N74W, where a
stationary front then continues to the coast of Cuba near 22N78W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted within 160 nm ahead of the
front. In the lee of the front, moderate NE winds and 4-6 ft seas
prevail.

A 1011 mb low pressure is analyzed near 29N41W, with gale force
winds north of the discussion waters. A surface trough extends
southwest of the low from 29N36W to 24N42W. Scattered showers
prevail along the trough and within the low. Seas 8 ft or greater
in NE swell are north of 26N between 35W-54W.

Elsewhere in the tropical Atlantic, gentle to moderate
anticyclonic flow prevails, driven by 1020 mb high pressure
centered just west of the Canary Islands. Seas are 4-7 in open
waters, increasing to 7-9 ft within an area from 17N to 24N east
of 25W.

For the forecast W of 55W, the low currently over the NW Bahamas
will drift NNE through the weekend, then move N of the area early
next week, while stationary front trails SW from the low. The
front from SW of Bermuda through central Cuba will dissipate this
weekend. The pressure gradient between the low and high pressure
over the southeastern U.S. will allow for northeast winds over the
waters north of the Bahamas to strengthen to fresh to strong
speeds tonight through Sun before diminishing.

For the forecast of significant features E of 55W, the 1011 mb
low will move quickly SSW to 28.5N47W by 1200 UTC 22 October.
Strong winds will persist near the low, but gale force winds are
not expected south of 31N. Peak seas near this feature will
diminish to 12 ft with swell direction remaining NE. The low
pressure has a low (10%) chance of developing into a subtropical
or tropical cyclone within the next 48 hours.

$$
ERA
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net