[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 150402
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sat Oct 15 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0400 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Depression Karl is centered near 19.1N 92.8W at 15/0300
UTC or 65 nm WNW of Ciudad Del Carmen Mexico moving S at 3 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Nearly all significant
convection has dissipated tonight, with the exception of a few
showers and isolated thunderstorms in the NE quadrant. Seas have
abated to 6 to 8 ft in the central Bay of Campeche. The slow
southward motion is expected to continue as Karl transitions to a
post-tropical low near the Mexican coast over the next 12 hours.
Swells generated by Karl are expected to affect the Mexican
coastline through Saturday night. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office for details. Please read
the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml, and the latest
Forecast/Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4.shtml,for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends along 29W, from 02N to
13N, moving west at 15 kt. Isolated moderate convection is
observed from 02N to 13N, between 24W and 34W. This tropical
wave has a low probability of tropical cyclone formation through
both 48 hours and 5 days.

A central Atlantic tropical wave extends along 44W from 03N to
17N, moving west at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
observed from 12N to 20N, between 39W and 44W.

Another central Atlantic tropical wave extends along 52W, from
02N to 18N, moving west at 5 kt. Scattered moderate convection
is observed from 12N to 22N, between 49W and 55W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave extends along 78W, from 06N to
20N, moving west at 5 kt. Associated convection is isolated and
weak.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal near 14N17W
to 07N37W. All significant convection along this boundary is
associated with the eastern Atlantic tropical wave described
above.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section above for information
about Tropical Depression Karl, which is in the Bay of Campeche.

Outside of the Bay of Campeche, a stationary front extends
across the northern Gulf from near Tampa, FL to Port OConnor TX.
While this front isnt causing significant impacts, there are
some isolated thunderstorms south of the boundary. Otherwise,
winds are gentle to moderate from the east with 3-5 ft seas
across the basin.

For the forecast, Tropical Depression Karl near 19.1N 92.8W 1004
mb at 11 PM EDT moving S at 3 kt. Maximum sustained winds 30 kt
gusts 40 kt. Karl will become a remnant low and move to 18.6N
93.2W Sat morning, 18.2N 93.6W Sat evening, and dissipate Sun
morning. Elsewhere, a stationary front from Tampa Bay to Corpus
Christi, Texas, will dissipate Sun. A stronger cold front is
expected to enter the northwest Gulf Mon preceded by scattered
showers and thunderstorms. This next front is likely to reach the
far southeastern Gulf late Tue.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the tropical waves section for information about the
tropical wave in the Caribbean.

A weak pressure gradient supports gentle to moderate trades and
3-5 ft seas across most of the basin, except in the NW Caribbean
where winds are light to gentle and seas are 1-3 ft.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds and slight to
moderate seas will persist across most areas of the Caribbean
through Sun and diminish to light to gentle wind speeds Sun night
into Wed night. A cold front may reach the Yucatan Channel Wed
night along with fresh to locally strong northerly winds and
moderate seas.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
moving across the basin.

In the western Atlantic, a stationary boundary extends from
31N75W to 28N80W near Cape Canaveral, FL. Convection is limited
along the boundary at this time. North of the front, winds are
moderate from the north. South and East of the front, winds are
gentle to locally moderate from the S-E. A series of NE-SW
oriented surface troughs are triggering scattered moderate
convection from 24N to 31N, between 65W and 75W. In the central
Atlantic, an upper level trough is supporting isolated
thunderstorms from 20N to 31N, between 40W and 55W. Otherwise,
winds are moderate to fresh from the E with 4-8 ft seas. In the
eastern Atlantic winds are moderate to fresh from the NE with
5-8 ft seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, a stationary front across the
offshore waters N of Freeport Island in the Bahamas will
transition back to a cold front Sat morning and reach from
Bermuda to Andros Island Sat evening then stall from SE of Bermuda
to NE of the Turks and Caicos Sun night, before gradually
dissipating early next week. Another cold front will move offshore
the SE U.S. Mon night, then reach from 31N73W to the Florida
Straits Tue night.

$$
Flynn
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