[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 142320
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sat Oct 15 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Karl is centered near 19.5N 92.9W at 14/2100 UTC
or 80 nm NW of Ciudad Del Carmen Mexico moving SSW at 4 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Scattered moderate
to strong convection is noted S of 20N, between 90W and 95W. Seas
12 ft or greater are within 30 nm of the center in the SW
quadrant with peak seas of 13 ft. Seas 8 ft or greater are limited
to the Bay of Campeche S of 20N. A southwestward motion is
expected during the next day or so as Karl moves over the Bay of
Campeche. On the forecast track, the center of Karl should be near
the coast of southern Mexico on Saturday. Swells generated by
Karl are expected to affect the Mexican coastline through Saturday
night. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office for details.

Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml, and the latest
Forecast/Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4.shtml,for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends along 27W from 02N to 13N moving west at
10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 02N to 13N between
23W and 30W. This tropical wave has a low probability of tropical
cyclone formation through 48 hours and 5 days.

A tropical wave extends along 43W, from 03N to 17N, moving W at
10 kt. Scattered moderate convection prevails from 06N-17N between
33W-43W.

A tropical wave extends along 51W, from 03N to 18N, moving W at
5-10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 10N to
19N between 48W and 58W.

A tropical wave extends along 78W, from 06N to 20N, moving W at
5-10 kt. No significant convection is present with this feature
at this time.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the border of Senegal and Guinea-
Bissau near 13N17W to 05N35W. Outside of the convection described
in the tropical waves section, scattered showers are in the
vicinity of the monsoon trough.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section above for information
about Tropical Storm Karl, which is in the Bay of Campeche.

Outside of the Bay of Campeche, fair conditions prevail across the
Gulf of Mexico. A cold front extends across the N Gulf from 28N83W
to 27N92W, then the front becomes stationary to 28N96W. No
significant convection is noted with the fronts at this time,
though a few showers are evident near the boundary on visible
satellite. Moderate E winds are south of the front, with moderate
NE winds north of the front. Seas are 3-5 ft across the basin.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Karl will weaken to a tropical
depression near 19.1N 93.1W Sat morning, become a remnant low and
move to 18.4N 93.8W Sat afternoon, and dissipate Sun morning.
Elsewhere, the front will stall tonight and dissipate Sun. A
stronger cold front is expected to enter the northwest Gulf Mon
preceded by scattered showers and thunderstorms. This next front
is likely to reach the far southeastern Gulf late Tue.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the tropical waves section for information about the
tropical wave in the Caribbean.

A weak pressure gradient supports gentle to locally moderate
trades and 3-5 ft seas across most of the basin, except in the NW
Caribbean where winds are light and variable and seas are 1-3 ft.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate
seas will persist across most areas of the Caribbean through Sun
and diminish to light to gentle wind speeds Sun night into Tue
night. A weak cold front may stall near the Yucatan Channel Sun
before dissipating Sun night. Another cold front may reach the
Yucatan Channel during the middle of next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
moving across the basin.

In the NW discussion waters, a cold front enters the area near
31N76W and extends to 29N80W. No convection is noted with the
cold front at this time. Southeast and ahead of the front, a
trough enters the discussion waters near 31N74W and continues
southwest to 27N79W. Scattered moderate convection ahead of the
trough is north of 23N between 67W and 77W. In the central
Atlantic, an area of scattered moderate convection enhanced by an
upper-level low is from 24N to 31N between 47W and 54W. NE to E
winds are moderate to fresh in the eastern and central Atlantic
with seas of 4-7 ft. E to SE winds are gentle in the W Atlantic,
with 2-4 ft seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned cold front will
continue moving SE and reach a Bermuda to Bahamas line late Sat,
then stall from SE of Bermuda to NE of the Turks and Caicos Sun
night, before gradually dissipating early next week. Another cold
front will move offshore the SE U.S. Mon night, then reach from
31N73W to the Florida Straits Tue night.

$$
ERA
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