[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT44 KNHC 122055
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Karl Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142022
400 PM CDT Wed Oct 12 2022

The overall satellite presentation of Karl has improved since early
this morning, but the system is being affected by moderate
westerly shear.  The center is located near the western edge of a
persistent cluster of convection that has cloud top temperatures of
around -80C. As mentioned in the earlier Special Advisory, an Air
Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft measured a peak 850-mb
flight level wind of 58 kt and SFMR winds of around 50 kt as it
exited the eastern portion of the storm.  There has been little
overall change in structure since the plane departed, so the initial
intensity is held at 50 kt.  Another reconnaissance mission into the
storm is scheduled for this evening.

Karl has continued to move northward, but its poleward progress
is forecast to end very soon.  A ridge building over northern
Mexico is forecast to start steering the cyclone generally
southward later tonight or early Thursday.  A southward motion
should then continue, and this motion is expected to bring
the center near the southern coast of Bay of Campeche on Friday.
The 1200 UTC dynamical model guidance suite is in slightly better
agreement, but it was once again east of the previous NHC advisory.
Another fairly significant eastward shift was required, but the
latest forecast is now closer to the consensus aids as well as
a blend of the GFS and ECMWF models.

Karl is located over warm water but within an area of moderate
westerly wind shear.  The shear is forecast to increase slightly,
however some additional slight strengthening is possible in the
short term.  After that, the shear and slightly lower mid-level
humidity is expected to cause gradual weakening before Karl reaches
the coast of Mexico.  After landfall, rapid weakening and
dissipation should occur.  The NHC wind speed forecast is slightly
higher than before, and it is not much different than the latest
ICON and HCCA consensus aids.


Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall could produce instances of flash flooding, with
mudslides in areas of higher terrain, across portions of Veracruz
and Tabasco states in Mexico.

2. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in
Mexico beginning on Friday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  12/2100Z 22.2N  94.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  13/0600Z 22.2N  94.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  13/1800Z 21.4N  94.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  14/0600Z 20.5N  93.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  14/1800Z 19.5N  93.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 60H  15/0600Z 18.7N  94.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  15/1800Z 17.5N  94.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  16/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net