[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT44 KNHC 121755
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Karl Special Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142022
100 PM CDT Wed Oct 12 2022

An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating Karl
found believable SFMR wind speeds between 48-52 kt east of the
center.  Based on these observations, the initial intensity is
increased to 50 kt.  The near-term intensity forecast has been
raised to account for the higher initial intensity.  The reasoning
for the intensity forecast has not changed from the earlier
advisory.  Karl is still expected to gradually weaken until
making landfall in 60-72 h.

The official track forecast has been adjusted slightly eastward at
12 and 24 hours based on its recent motion and now reflects a
hairpin turn to the right that should be complete in about 24 hours.


Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall could produce instances of flash flooding, with
mudslides in areas of higher terrain, across portions of Veracruz
and Tabasco states in Mexico.

2. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in
Mexico starting on Thursday night or Friday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  12/1800Z 22.0N  94.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  13/0000Z 22.2N  94.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  13/1200Z 21.6N  94.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  14/0000Z 20.9N  94.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  14/1200Z 20.0N  94.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 60H  15/0000Z 19.1N  94.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  15/1200Z 18.1N  95.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  16/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Brown/Cangialosi
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