[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 102256
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Tue Oct 11 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 27W/28W, from 16N southward, moving W at
10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted where the wave
meets the ITCZ.

A tropical wave is along 52W/53W, from 16N southward, moving W at
15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is near the northern end of
the wave axis, particularly from 12N-15N between 51W-55W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough is inland in Africa. The ITCZ passes through
the coastal plains of Senegal near 13N17W to 07N30W to 05N50W.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection can be found from
03N-10N between 28W-47W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends from near Sarasota, Florida to 23N92W.
A recent scatterometer satellite pass indicated fresh to strong
NE winds behind the front with seas of 6 to 8 ft across the
central Gulf. Scattered showers with embedded thunderstorms are
along the frontal boundary. A surface trough persist over the SW
Gulf and runs from NE Mexico near 25N98W to the eastern Bay of
Campeche near 19N92W. The scatterometer pass also shows fresh to
strong NW winds west of the trough near the Veracruz region.
Gentle to moderate winds are ahead of the front, and E of the
trough. Showers and thunderstorms are noted over the Yucatan
peninsula and SE Mexico, associated with a trough of low pressure
and the remnants of Julia.

For the forecast, the stationary front will lift northward as a
weak warm front over the eastern and central Gulf into Tue while
gradually dissipating. Expect mainly moderate to fresh NE winds
across much of the basin through early Tue. Fresh to strong NW
winds and moderate to rough seas will persist over the far southwest
Gulf off the coast of Veracruz, Mexico through Tue. Another front
will move into the northwest Gulf early Thu, and extending across
the central Gulf Fri. Looking ahead, some development of the
trough of low pressure located over the Yucatan peninsula is
possible on Tuesday and Wednesday when the system moves slowly
west-northwestward to northwestward over the far southwestern
Gulf of Mexico. Increasing upper-level winds should prevent
significant development late this week. Regardless of development,
heavy rain is expected over portions of southern Mexico, Belize,
and Guatemala during the next couple of days.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Julia moved across southern Guatemala on Monday and dissipated.
The National Hurricane Center issued the last advisory on this
system at 10/2100 UTC. Satellite derived wind data indicate fresh
to strong E to SE winds across the western Caribbean, mainly S
of 20N and W of 85W, including the Gulf of Honduras with seas of
6-8 ft. Moderate to fresh easterly winds are in the Yucatan
Channel where seas are in the 4-6 ft range. Elsewhere, moderate
winds and seas are observed.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted over the NW
Caribbean and parts of Central America, more concentrated over
Nicaragua and NE Honduras. Showers and thunderstorms are also
noted over parts of Cuba. A diffluent pattern aloft is helping to
induce this convective activity. An upper-level low over the
eastern Caribbean continues to support some shower activity
mainly E of 68W.

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds and moderate to rough
seas will persist across the far northwest Caribbean through
tonight. Fresh to occasionally strong trade winds pulsing near
the coast over the south-central Caribbean will diminish by mid
week. Elsewhere, moderate winds and seas will diminish across the
basin by late week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends from 31N74W to near Melbourne, Florida.
Scattered showers are along the front. Gentle to moderate northerly
winds are in the wake of the front, with seas of 3-5 ft. Gentle
to moderate E winds and moderate seas are evident elsewhere west
of 55W, except for winds of 15-20 kt across the southern Bahamas
and near the northern approaches to the Windward Passage. Farther
east, an upper low centered near 25N50W is generating an area of
showers and thunderstorms from 23N-27N between 49W-55W. A surface
trough, reflection of this low, is analyzed from 31N51W to 22N60W.
To the east of the trough, a 1029 mb high pressure is centered W
of the Azores near 35N36W. Moderate to fresh trade winds and 5
to 7 ft seas are noted along the southern periphery of this high
center particularly between 30W and 50W. East of 35W, moderate
NE winds and moderate seas are noted.

For the forecast west of 55W, the above mentioned stationary
front will be reinforced tonight and move slight southward. The
front will stall from near Bermuda to east-central Florida by
late Tue, then dissipate at it lifts northward through mid week.
Looking ahead, a cold front will move off the coast of northeast
Florida late Thu, and reach from Bermuda to eastern Cuba by Fri
night to early Sat morning.

$$
GR
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