[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 101732
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Mon Oct 10 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1710 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 26W/27W, from 16N
southward, moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots. Precipitation:
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from the ITCZ to
20N between Africa and the tropical wave.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 51W/52W, from 16N
southward, moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots. Precipitation:
isolated to widely scattered moderate, and locally to isolated
strong, is from 18N southward between 43W and 60W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough is inland in Africa. The ITCZ passes through
the coastal plains of Senegal near 14N17W to 08N25W, to 07N28W
06N36W 05N43W 05N50W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong is from 03N to 11N between the two tropical waves.
Isolated moderate is from 03N to 10N from 20W eastward.

Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is
from 16N southward between 55W and 63W. It is possible that this
precipitation may be related also to the area of upper level
cyclonic wind flow that encompasses parts of the Caribbean Sea and
the Atlantic Ocean from 57W westward. Please, read the CARIBBEAN
SEA section for more details.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front passes through 31N75W, to Florida near 28N81W,
to 24N92W in the central sections of the Gulf of Mexico. A surface
trough passes through the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico, to the
coastal plains of the middle Texas Gulf coast. Precipitation:
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 27N southward
from 96W eastward in general...from the stationary front
southward.

Fresh to strong winds, and sea heights that range from 6 feet to 9
feet, are in the central Gulf of Mexico. This is happening between
high pressure that is in Mississippi, and lower pressure that is
in the western Caribbean Sea and in the tropical NE Pacific Ocean.
Fresh to strong NW winds are in the far SW Gulf, along the coast
of the Mexican state of Veracruz, to the west of the surface
trough that is in the area. The sea heights were reaching 9 feet
off the port of Veracruz in Mexico. Moderate NE winds and moderate
seas are elsewhere.

A stationary front from near Sarasota, Florida to 25N93W will
move northward as a weak warm front over the eastern and central
Gulf into Tue while gradually dissipating. Expect mainly moderate
to fresh NE winds across much of the basin through early Tue.
Fresh to strong NW winds and moderate to rough seas will persist
over the far southwest Gulf off the coast of Veracruz, Mexico
through Tue. Looking ahead, another front will move into the
northwest Gulf early Thu, and extending across the central Gulf
Fri.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The center of Tropical Depression Julia, at 10/1500 UTC, is near
14.1N 90.3W, in the coastal plains of southern Guatemala. This
position also is about 60 km/33 nm to the ENE of Puerto San Jose
in Guatemala. Julia is moving WNW, or 300 degrees, 13 knots. The
estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. The maximum
sustained wind speeds are 30 knots with gusts to 40 knots. A NW-
to-SE oriented surface trough extends from the Caribbean Sea coast
of Honduras near 86W, into the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico.
Precipitation: numerous strong is in the central sections of
Belize, and in the NE sections of Guatemala that are adjacent to
the central sections of Belize. Scattered moderate to widely
scattered strong is in the south central sections of the Yucatan
Peninsula. Scattered moderate to widely scattered strong is in the
western half of El Salvador, and the in the rest of Guatemala.
Scattered moderate to strong is in the NW Caribbean Sea within 60
nm on either side of the line from 19N82W into the Yucatan
Channel. Isolated moderate to locally strong is in the remainder
of the area that is between 80W in the Caribbean Sea and 98W,
including in the SW Gulf of Mexico and in interior sections of
Mexico.

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers parts of the Atlantic Ocean
and the Caribbean Sea, from 23N southward between 56W and 75W. A
surface trough passes through the Mona Passage, along 21N68W
14N69W. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is on the northern
side of the cyclonic wind flow from 20N to 23N between 60W and
70W, and on western side of the area of cyclonic wind flow.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 73W
eastward. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from
16N southward between 55W in the Atlantic Ocean and 63W in the
eastern Caribbean Sea.

Fresh to strong E winds, and sea heights reaching 8 feet, have
been in the far NW corner of the Caribbean Sea. The sea heights
have been ranging from 5 feet to 7 feet in the rest of the NW
corner of the area. Moderate winds and seas are in the remainder
of the Caribbean Sea. The exception is for: fresh winds in the
Windward Passage; off Cabo Beata of Hispaniola; and between
central Panama and San Andres Island in the southwestern corner
of the Caribbean Sea.

Fresh to strong winds and moderate to rough seas will persist
across the far northwest Caribbean through late today. Fresh to
occasionally strong trade winds pulsing near the coast over the
south-central Caribbean will diminish by mid week. Elsewhere,
moderate winds and seas will diminish across the basin by late
week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front passes through 31N74W, to Florida near 28N81W,
into the central Gulf of Mexico. A surface trough is about 130 nm
to the SSE of the stationary front, from the NW Bahamas
northeastward. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong is from 31N58W 27N65W 27N80W northward.

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the areas that are from 20N
northward between 43W and 63W. A surface trough is along 31N52W
26N57W 21N60W. Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered
moderate, and isolated strong, is from 22N northward between 44W
and the surface trough.

A 1030 mb high pressure center is near 36N36W. Gentle to moderate
E winds, and moderate seas, are from 55W westward, except for
wind speeds to 20 knots in the southern Bahamas and near the
northern approaches to the Windward Passage. Moderate to fresh
trade winds, and sea heights that range from 5 feet to 7 feet, are
to the south of the 1030 mb high pressure center, between 35W and
55W. Moderate NE winds, and moderate seas, are from 35W eastward.

A stationary front, from 31N74W to near Palm Bay in Florida, will
be reinforced today and move slightly southward. The front will
stall from near Bermuda to east-central Florida by late Tue, then
dissipate as it moves northward through mid week. Looking ahead,
a cold front will move off the coast of northeast Florida late
Thu, and reach from Bermuda to eastern Cuba by Fri night to early
Sat morning.

$$
MT
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