[Tropical] Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT33 KNHC 091138
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Julia Intermediate Advisory Number 12A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132022
800 AM EDT Sun Oct 09 2022

...JULIA MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS NICARAGUA, STILL AS A HURRICANE...
...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES POSSIBLE FROM HEAVY
RAINS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO THROUGH TUESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.4N 84.6W
ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM WNW OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA
ABOUT 115 MI...190 KM E OF MANAGUA NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.20 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Colombia has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning for San Andres, Providencia, and Santa Catalina Islands.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Nicaragua from Bluefields to Puerto Cabezas

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Nicaragua north of Puerto Cabezas to the Honduras/Nicaragua border

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Nicaragua south of Bluefields to the Nicaragua/Costa Rica border
* Nicaragua north of Puerto Cabezas to the Honduras/Nicaragua border
* Pacific coast of Nicaragua
* Pacific coast of Honduras
* Coast of El Salvador

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Honduras from the Nicaragua/Honduras border to Punta Patuca
* Pacific coast of Guatemala

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Julia was located
inland over Nicaragua near latitude 12.4 North, longitude 84.6
West. Julia is moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h). This
general motion is expected to continue through tonight, followed by
a slight turn to the west-northwest on Monday. On the forecast
track, the center of Julia is expected to continue moving across
Nicaragua today and emerge over the eastern Pacific by tonight.
Julia is then forecast to move near or along the Pacific coasts of
Honduras, El Salvador, and Guatemala on Monday and Monday night.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 75 mph (120 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected today as Julia
moves over Nicaragua, but it is still forecast to be a tropical
storm when it emerges off the Pacific coast of Nicaragua by tonight.
Julia is forecast to weaken to a tropical depression on Monday night
and dissipate by Tuesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115
miles (185 km). The Bluefields International Airport in Nicaragua
reported a sustained wind of 81 mph (130 km/h) a few hours ago a
little after Julia had made landfall.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb (29.20 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Julia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml.

WIND:  Hurricane conditions will continue near Julia's center
and along the coast of Nicaragua within the warning area this
morning.  Hurricane conditions are possible along the coast of
Nicaragua within the hurricane watch area this morning.

Tropical storm conditions will continue along the Caribbean coast of
Nicaragua within the tropical storm warning areas through this
morning.  Tropical storm conditions are possible along the coast of
Honduras within the watch area through this morning.

Tropical storm conditions are expected along the Pacific coasts of
Nicaragua, Honduras, and El Salvador within the warning area
beginning this afternoon into tonight. Tropical storm conditions are
possible along the Pacific coast of Guatemala within the watch area
on Monday.

RAINFALL:  Julia is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through early Tuesday:

Nicaragua and El Salvador...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches.
Honduras, Belize, northern Guatemala, and the Isthmus of Tehuantepec
in Mexico...3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches.
San Andres, Providencia, and Panama...an additional 2 to 4 inches,
isolated 12 inch storm total amounts.
Southern Guatemala and Costa Rica...4 to 8 inches, isolated 12
inches.

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides
across Central America today and Monday. Flash flooding is
anticipated across the Isthmus of Tehuantepec in Mexico early this
week.

STORM SURGE:  A dangerous storm surge is likely still occurring
along the coast of Nicaragua in areas of onshore winds, but water
levels should subside today.  Large and damaging waves will likely
accompany the storm surge near the coast.

SURF:  Swells generated by Julia are affecting Jamaica, Providencia,
and San Andres, and the coast of Central America.  These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg
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