[Tropical] Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

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WTNT33 KNHC 090851
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Julia Advisory Number  12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132022
500 AM EDT Sun Oct 09 2022

...JULIA BRINGING HURRICANE CONDITIONS AND A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE
TO PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA...
...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES POSSIBLE FROM HEAVY
RAINS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.4N 84.0W
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM NNW OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM E OF MANAGUA NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Colombia has replaced the Hurricane Warning
with a Tropical Storm Warning for San Andres, Providencia, and
Santa Catalina Islands.

The government of Guatemala has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
the entire Pacific coast of Guatemala, from the El
Salvador/Guatemala border to the Guatemala/Mexico border.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Nicaragua from Bluefields to Puerto Cabezas

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Nicaragua north of Puerto Cabezas to the Honduras/Nicaragua border

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Nicaragua south of Bluefields to the Nicaragua/Costa Rica border
* Nicaragua north of Puerto Cabezas to the Honduras/Nicaragua border
* San Andres, Providencia, and Santa Catalina Islands Colombia
* Pacific coast of Nicaragua
* Pacific coast of Honduras
* Coast of El Salvador

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Honduras from the Nicaragua/Honduras border to Punta Patuca
* Pacific coast of Guatemala

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Julia was located
near latitude 12.4 North, longitude 84.0 West. Julia is moving
toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h). This general motion is
expected to continue through tonight, followed by a slight turn to
the west-northwest on Monday. On the forecast track, the center of
Julia is expected to move across Nicaragua today and emerge over the
eastern Pacific by tonight. Julia is then forecast to move near or
along the Pacific coasts of Honduras, El Salvador, and Guatemala on
Monday and Monday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Weakening is expected today as Julia moves over Nicaragua,
but it is still forecast to be a tropical storm when it emerges off
the Pacific coast of Nicaragua by tonight. Julia is forecast to
weaken to a tropical depression on Monday night and dissipate by
Tuesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km). The Bluefields International Airport in Nicaragua recently
reported a sustained wind of 58 mph (93 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 982 mb (29.00 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Julia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml.

WIND:  Hurricane conditions will continue over the coast of
Nicaragua within the warning area this morning. Hurricane conditions
are possible along the coast of Nicaragua within the hurricane watch
area this morning. Tropical storm conditions, mainly in gusts, will
continue for the next few hours on the islands of San Andres,
Providencia, and Santa Catalina.

Tropical storm conditions will continue along the Caribbean coast of
Nicaragua within the tropical storm warning areas through this
morning. Tropical storm conditions are possible along the coast of
Honduras within the watch area through this morning.

Tropical storm conditions are expected along the Pacific coasts of
Nicaragua, Honduras, and El Salvador within the warning area
beginning this afternoon into tonight. Tropical storm conditions are
possible along the Pacific coast of Guatemala within the watch area
on Monday.

RAINFALL:  Julia is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through early Tuesday:

Nicaragua and El Salvador...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches.
Honduras, Belize, northern Guatemala, and the Isthmus of Tehuantepec
in Mexico...3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches.
San Andres, Providencia, and Panama...an additional 2 to 4 inches,
isolated 12 inch storm total amounts.
Southern Guatemala and Costa Rica...4 to 8 inches, isolated 12
inches.

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides
across Central America today and Monday. Flash flooding is
anticipated across the Isthmus of Tehuantepec in Mexico early this
week.

STORM SURGE:  A storm surge is likely to raise water levels by as
much as 4 to 6 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate
coast of Nicaragua in areas of onshore winds. Large and damaging
waves will likely accompany the storm surge near the coast.

Water levels should be receding on San Andres, Providencia, and
Santa Catalina Islands as Julia continues moving inland over
Nicaragua.

SURF:  Swells generated by Julia are affecting Jamaica, Providencia,
and San Andres, and the coast of Central America. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart
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