[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT42 KNHC 050836
TCDAT2

Tropical Depression Twelve Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122022
500 AM AST Wed Oct 05 2022

The depression is a sheared tropical cyclone, with the low-level
center displaced about 40 n mi to the west-southwest of the main
area of deep convection.  Overall, the system is quite
ragged-looking and elongated from south to north, with little
evidence of banding.  The current intensity estimate is held at 30
kt in agreement with Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB, although
this may be generous.

Southwesterly flow associated with a large upper-level low
centered about 700 n mi to the north of the depression is imparting
strong shear on the system.  Global model guidance indicates that
this shear will continue, and increase, over the next 48 hours or
so while the tropical cyclone moves over waters of diminishing
oceanic heat content.  These negative environmental factors should
result in the system dissipating in a couple of days.  This is in
general agreement with the latest LGEM intensity guidance, and with
the global model guidance that shows the system opening up into a
trough by late Thursday.

The depression is moving somewhat to the left of previous estimates
with an initial motion of 320/7 kt.  Over the next day or two, the
system is expected to move along the southwestern side of a
mid-level ridge over the eastern Atlantic.  The official track
forecast is a little to the left of the previous one, but to the
right of the model consensus.  This is close to the latest ECMWF
track prediction.

As noted earlier, some of the model guidance, notably the ECMWF,
and its ensemble, hints that the system could make a comeback after
5 days over the subtropical Atlantic.  Given the uncertainties,
this will not be shown in the official forecast at this time.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  05/0900Z 15.8N  31.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  05/1800Z 16.8N  32.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  06/0600Z 17.9N  33.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  06/1800Z 19.1N  35.3W   25 KT  30 MPH
 48H  07/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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