[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT42 KNHC 050244
TCDAT2

Tropical Depression Twelve Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122022
1100 PM AST Tue Oct 04 2022

The convective structure associated with the depression this evening
appears to be evolving from one that previously had the center
embedded in deep convection to more of a shear pattern, with only a
singular burst of deep convection occuring to the east of the
estimated center. This evolution is a result of southwesterly
vertical wind shear which is increasing over the system currently.
Unfortunately scatterometer data this evening largely missed the
small circulation. Subjective and objective Dvorak estimates remain
unchanged from 6 hours ago, and thus the latest intensity is held at
30 kt for this advisory.

The depression remains positioned along the southwestern side of a
mid-level ridge which is helping to steer the system generally
north-northwestward, estimated at 335/8-kt. This synoptic steering
pattern should remain in place with a strong mid- to upper-level low
maintaining the weakness north of the cyclone. The latest track
forecast was only nudged just a bit westward, shifting the NHC track
in the direction of the consensus aids.

The previously mentioned shear is expected to increase further to
over 30 kt in about 24 hours, with sea surface temperatures
gradually decreasing along the forecast track. The global and
regional hurricane model guidance responds to this unfavorable
environment by opening up the circulation of the depression into a
surface trough sometime in the 36-48 hour period. The latest
forecast now shows little intensification with the depression
dissipating in 48 hours.

It should be noted that some of the deterministic and ensemble model
guidance suggest that the forecast remains of this system may have
an opportunity to regenerate back into a tropical cyclone in the
subtropical Atlantic well away from land in about 5 days. At this
juncture, that possibility will not be reflected in the current
forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  05/0300Z 15.3N  30.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  05/1200Z 16.3N  31.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  06/0000Z 17.7N  32.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  06/1200Z 19.1N  34.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  07/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net