[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 020402
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sun Oct 2 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0400 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends along 29W, from 02N to
16N, moving W at 10 kt. Isolated moderate convection is observed
from 05N to 12N, between 21W and 34W. Although the organization of
this system has not improved since yesterday, environmental
conditions are forecast to be favorable for some gradual
development during the next several days. A tropical depression is
likely to form during the early or middle part of next week while
the system moves westward, then turns northwestward or northward
over the eastern tropical Atlantic. This wave has a low chance of
tropical cyclone development through 48 hours and a high chance
through the next 5 days. For the latest information, please read
the Tropical Weather Outlook at hurricanes.gov.

A central Atlantic tropical wave extends along 44W, from 02N to
17N, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed
from 07N to 13N, between 40W and 50W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal near 13N17W
to 08N34W. The ITCZ continues from 08N34W to 09N41W. The ITCZ
resumes west of a tropical wave from 09N45W to 07N58W along the
coast of Guyana. Convection is mostly isolated and weak outside of
the tropical wave activity described above.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Marine conditions are favorable in the Gulf of Mexico with a
gentle northerly breeze and slight seas across the basin. Dry air
is suppressing any significant convection.

For the forecast, a surface ridge will continue to dominate the
Gulf waters through the middle of the next week producing gentle
to locally moderate NE to E winds and slight seas.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough extends from central Cuba to the coastal waters
of central Panama. This feature continues to drive the weather in
the SW and central Caribbean, supporting scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms. The gradient between subtropical high
pressure and lower pressure over South America is supporting
moderate trade winds in the eastern Caribbean and 2-4 ft seas.
This gradient relaxes across the remainder of the basin where
winds are gentle and seas are in the 1-3 ft range.

For the forecast, a surface trough is forecast to persist over
the western Caribbean through at least Tue. A tropical wave,
currently located along 44W should reach 55W/56W by Tue bringing
some increase in winds and seas to the eastern Caribbean.
Elsewhere, gentle to moderate trades and slight to moderate seas
are expected across the basin.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary boundary extends across the western Atlantic from
31N75W, across the Bahamas, to 22N78W along the central Cuban
coast. West of the boundary, winds are light to gentle with 4-6 ft
swell and clear skies. East of the boundary, winds are moderate
to fresh from the S with 5-7 ft seas. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms extend east of the boundary to 70W. High pressure
dominates the central Atlantic where easterly winds are light to
gentle with 3-5 ft seas north of 20N, and moderate with 4-6 ft
seas south of 20N. A tighter pressure gradient in the eastern
Atlantic is causing moderate to fresh NE winds and 5-7 ft seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, a stationary front extends east of
Florida from 31N75W to 22N78W. This front should be reinforced by
a cold front moving off of the coast of NE Florida on Sun. The
combined frontal boundary should reach from near 31N70W to the NW
Bahamas by early Mon morning, and from 31N66W to the central
Bahamas by early Tue morning.

$$
Flynn
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