[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 020000
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sun Oct 2 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2350 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends from 04N to 16N with axis near 27W/28W,
moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from
04N to 12N, between 20W and 33W. Although the organization of
this system has not improved since yesterday, environmental
conditions are forecast to be favorable for some gradual
development during the next several days. A tropical depression is
likely to form during the early or middle part of next week while
the system moves westward, then turns northwestward or northward
over the eastern tropical Atlantic. This wave has a low chance of
tropical cyclone development through 48 hours and a high chance
over the next 5 days. For the latest information, please read the
Tropical Weather Outlook at hurricanes.gov.

A tropical wave extends from 05N to 17N with axis near 42W, moving
W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 07N to
14N, between 39W and 50W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Senegal near 12N16W to 09N25W to 08N33W. The ITCZ extends from
08N33W to 09N42W and then from 09N44W to 11N54W. Aside from the
convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate
convection is off the W coast of Africa from 04N to 13N between
08W and 19W, and from 09N to 16N between 50W and 57W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Gentle to locally moderate N to NE winds are basin-wide with seas
to 3 ft. Except for the Yucatan channel where low level
precipitable water imagery show shallow moisture, the remainder
basin is under the influence of deep layer dry air, which is
supporting fair weather.

For the forecast, surface ridging will continue to build across the
Gulf waters through the middle of the next week producing gentle
to locally moderate NE to E winds and slight seas.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough extends from central Cuba SW to a 1008 mb low
near 15N81W to the coastal waters of central Panama. This feature
continues to drive the weather in the SW and central Caribbean,
supporting scattered showers and isolated tstms in those regions.
This shower activity is being reinforced by middle and upper level
divergent and diffluent flow. In terms of winds and seas, a weak
pressure gradient in this region is providing mainly light to
gentle variable winds with seas in the 2-3 ft range. Over the E
Caribbean, the presence of the Bermuda High tighten the pressure
gradient slightly, thus supporting slightly higher winds of gentle
to moderate speeds with locally fresh trades in the far SE basin.

For the forecast, a surface trough is forecast to persist over
the western Caribbean through at least Tue. A tropical wave,
currently located along 42W/43W should reach 55W/56W by Tue
bringing some increase in winds and seas. Elsewhere, gentle to
moderate trades and slight to moderate seas are expected across
the basin.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Post-Tropical Cyclone Ian is centered near 36.8N 78.8W at
01/2100 UTC or 80 nm WSW of Richmond Virginia moving ENE at 5
kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Seas subsided
to just less than 8 ft in the SW N Atlantic waters just E of the
Bahamas to 60W. A stationary front extends from 31N75W SW to
Andros Island and central Cuba. To the east of the front to 60W,
moderate to fresh SE to S winds prevail with seas between 5 to 7
ft. West of the frontal boundary and along the Florida seaboard
winds are gentle to locally moderate with seas in the 2-4 ft
range. The remainder subtropical Atlantic waters are under the
influence of the Azores and Bermuda Highs, which are supporting
light to gentle variable winds, except E of 26W where NE moderate
to fresh winds are present with 5-7 ft seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, the stationary front should be
reinforced by another cold front moving off of the coast of NE
Florida on Sun. The combined cold front should reach from near
31N70W to the NW Bahamas by early Mon morning, and extend from
31N66W to the central Bahamas by early Tue morning.

$$
Ramos
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