[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 291757
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Tue Nov 29 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front will enter the NW Gulf
early on Wed, followed by strong to near gale force N-NE winds.
Frequent gusts to gale force are expected in the NW Gulf on Wed
and early Wed night. As a result, seas will build to 8-10 ft in
the NW Gulf, and continue into Thu. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are expected along and ahead of the front. Winds
and seas will diminish late Thu. For details on this Gale
Warning, please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Guinea near
10N14W to 08N18W, where recent scatterometer data indicates that
it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to 04N36W to the mouth
of the Amazon River near 01N50W. Scattered moderate convection
is within 120 nm north of the ITCZ between 30W-40W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A fairly weak pressure gradient exists across the Gulf of
Mexico, resulting in mainly moderate E to SE winds. Winds
occasionally reach fresh speeds in the NW Gulf. Seas are mainly
2 to 4 ft reaching 5 ft in the NW Gul, noted in buoy
observations. Elsewhere, isolated showers and thunderstorms seen
in satellite imagery continue in the NE Gulf .

For the forecast, weak high pressure over the area will shift
eastward through late tonight as a strong cold front approaches
eastern Texas. The front will enter the NW Gulf early on Wed
followed by strong to near gale force north to northeast winds.
Frequent gusts to gale force are expected in the NW Gulf on Wed
and early Wed night. This front will reach from northern Florida
to near Tampico, Mexico by Wed night, and from central Florida
to near Veracruz, Mexico early Thu. The front will reach the
southeastern Gulf and Straits of Florida late Thu and become
stationary through late Fri while it weakens. Strong high
pressure behind the front will shift eastward through Fri night
allowing for winds to become easterly and moderate to fresh in
speeds across most of the  basin. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will precede the front.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are in the
southwestern Caribbean, more concentrated near and along the
coast of Panama. Generally tranquil weather conditions prevail
elsewhere. The pressure gradient between high pressure north of
the Caribbean and lower pressure over northern South America is
maintaining moderate to fresh trade winds in the central and
eastern Caribbean, including the Windward Passage. Seas are
across most of the Caribbean 4-7 ft. Seas up to 5 ft are noted
within the Windward Passage. Gentle to moderate easterly breezes
are in the northwestern Caribbean, except for mainly fresh E
winds in the Gulf of Honduras and near the adjacent Bay Islands.
Seas in the areas described are 2-4 ft.

For the forecast, Atlantic high pressure will maintain moderate
to fresh trade winds across the central and eastern Caribbean
Sea through Thu afternoon. Winds will pulse to strong speeds
overnight tonight and Wed night south of Hispaniola and in the
Windward Passage. Beginning on Thu evening, fresh to strong
northeast winds will develop in the lee of Cuba, and in the
Windward Passage, and continue south of Hispaniola. The fetch
area will spread southwest over the western and central
Caribbean sea through Sat night as strengthening high pressure
shifts offshore the mid-Atlantic region. Long-period north swell
propagating through the Tropical N Atlantic waters will slowly
subside through Wed night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

West of 55W, a weak cold front extends from 31N63W to 27N72W,
then becomes a stationary front to the central Bahamas and to
the Straits of Florida. Moderate to fresh N-NE winds are behind
the boundary. Seas are generally 4 to 6 ft, with 3 ft seas near
the Bahamas and Florida Peninsula. Scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms moving east are seen within about 180 nm east of
the front north of 26N. Elsewhere, 6 to 9 ft seas continue to
reach the Leeward Islands, Virginia Islands, and Puerto Rico.

Farther east, a trough is analyzed from 31N40W to 25N44W and to
20N45W. A well-defined upper low is shown in water vapor imagery
just east of the trough, supporting scattered moderate
convection. The remainder of the tropical Atlantic remains under
the dominance of an expansive subtropical ridge north of the
area. Moderate trades are noted north of 20N and east of 40W
near the ridge axis, where seas continue to be 11 to 13 ft.
Moderate to fresh trades extend south of 20N, and south of 27N
between the west coast of Africa and 40W. Seas of 10 to 15 ft
are noted between 30W and 40W north of 20N, while seas of 9 to
14 ft are between 40W to 55W.

For the forecast, the aforementioned weak cold front will reach
from 31N53W to 26N64W and  become stationary to the central
Bahamas Wed morning, then will dissipate by early Thu as broad
surface troughing forms east of the forecast waters. A strong
cold front will move off the southeastern U.S. coast late Wed
night, reach from near 31N67W to the NW Bahamas and to South
Florida Thu night, then become stationary near 25N by late Fri
as strong high pressure builds across the area in its wake.
Fresh to strong northeast to east winds and building seas to
around 15 ft are expected north and northeast of the Bahamas Fri
and Fri night. These seas are forecast to build even further Sat
and Sat night in a long-period north to northeast swell,
possibly reaching as high as 20 ft in the far northeast part of
the forecast waters on Sat night. The long-period swell will
impact the waters between the southeastern Bahamas and Puerto
Rico with rough seas thru Sat night leading to potentially
hazardous marine conditions.

$$
Mora
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