[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 291037
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Tue Nov 29 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front will enter the NW Gulf
early on Wed, followed by strong to near gale force N-NE winds.
Frequent gusts to gale force are expected in the NW Gulf on Wed
and early Wed night. A Gale Warning is in effect for Wed
afternoon and evening for the NW Gulf offshore waters, where
frequent gusts to 35 kt are anticipated. As a result, seas will
build to 8-10 ft in the NW Gulf, and continue into Thu. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are expected along and ahead of the
front. Winds and seas will diminish late Thu. For details on this
Gale Warning, please read the latest Offshore Zones Forecast
issued by the National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Guinea-Bissau
near 12N16W to 05N22W, where overnight scatterometer data
indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to
03N30W to 03N40W and to 02N50W. Scattered moderate convection is
within 180 nm north of the ITCZ between 43W-48W, and within 60 nm
north of the ITCZ between 39W-43W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough over the eastern Gulf extends from near 29N85W
to 25N89W. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are along the
trough. The typical diurnal Yucatan Peninsula trough has moved
offshore into the eastern Bay of Campeche along a position from
22N90W to 19N93W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted
along this trough. The remainder of the Gulf of Mexico is under a
weak pressure gradient and fairly tranquil weather conditions.
Gentle to moderate east to southeast winds prevail across the
basin, occasionally reaching fresh speeds off the northwest
Yucatan Peninsula and in the and NW Gulf. Seas of 1-3 ft across
the Gulf per latest and current buoy data.

For the forecast, weak high pressure over the area will shift
eastward through late tonight as a strong cold front approaches
eastern Texas. This cold front will enter the NW Gulf early on Wed
followed by strong to near gale force north to northeast winds.
Frequent gusts to gale force are expected in the NW Gulf on Wed
and early Wed night. This front will reach from northern Florida
to near Tampico, Mexico by Wed night, and from central Florida to
near Veracruz, Mexico early Thu. The front will reach the
southeastern Gulf and Straits of Florida late Thu and become
stationary through late Fri while it weakens. Strong high pressure
behind the front will shift eastward through Fri night allowing
for winds to become easterly and moderate to fresh in speeds
across most of the basin. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will
precede the front.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are in the
southwestern Caribbean, more concentrated near and along the
coast of Panama. Generally tranquil weather conditions prevail
elsewhere. The pressure gradient between high pressure north of
the Caribbean and lower pressures across northern South America
is maintaining moderate to fresh trade winds in the central and
eastern Caribbean, including the Windward Passage as noted in
recent partial ASCAT data passes. Seas in these waters are 4-7
ft. Gentle to moderate easterly breezes are in the northwestern
Caribbean, except for mainly fresh east winds in the Gulf of
Honduras and near the adjacent Bay Islands. Seas in the waters
described are 2-4 ft.

For the forecast, Atlantic high pressure will maintain moderate
to fresh trade winds across the central and eastern Caribbean Sea
through Thu afternoon. Winds will pulse to strong speeds at
tonight and Wed night south of Hispaniola and in the Windward
Passage. Beginning on Thu evening, fresh to strong northeast winds
will develop in the lee of Cuba, in the Windward Passage and
continue south of Hispaniola. These winds will spread a good
distance to the southwest over the western and central Caribbean
areas through Sat night as strengthening high pressure shifts
offshore the mid-Atlantic region. Long-period north swell
propagating through the Tropical N Atlantic waters will slowly
subside through Wed night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weak cold front extends from 31N68W to 28N72W, then becomes a
stationary front to the central Bahamas and to the Straits
of Florida. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms moving
east are seen within about 180 nm east of the front north of
29N. This activity is being aided by an upper-level impulse
that is riding eastward along a strong W to E jet-stream branch
that is identified on water vapor imagery to be near 30N.
Moderate to fresh easterly breezes are noted off NW Hispaniola
and eastern Cuba. Moderate or weaker winds and seas of 4-6 ft
are in the remainder of the western tropical Atlantic, primarily
west of 65W. The exception is from 22N to 27N west of 70W,
including the waters surrounding the Bahamas where lower seas of
2-4 ft are present. Farther east, a frontal trough is analyzed
from 31N36W to 27N44W and to 22N49W. In the upper-levels,
a well-defined upper low is shown in water vapor imagery to be
not too far east of the trough. This low is near 22N46W. Satellite
imagery shows scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm of
the low, except within 120 nm in the NE quadrant and 90 nm in the
SW quadrant. Another trough is analyzed from 29N33W to 25N36W. No
convection is associated with this feature as it in a very stable
environment.

The remainder of the tropical Atlantic remains under the dominance
of an expansive subtropical ridge north of the area. Moderate to
locally fresh trade winds are south of 20N and west of 35W, along
with seas of 7-12 ft. The highest of this range of seas is located
from 16N to 20N. A large swell area encompasses much of the
central tropical Atlantic, producing seas of 12-18 ft, especially
north of 20N and between 30W-55W. Altimeter data from last quite
impressively reflected these values. Fresh to locally strong N-NE
winds are evident on recent scatterometer satellite wind data east
of 35W, with the strongest winds occurring offshore Morocco and
Western Sahara. Seas in these waters are 6-10 ft. Over the rest of
the basin, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, the aforementioned weak cold front will reach
from near 30N55W to 24N65W and stationary to the central Bahamas
and dissipating to the Straits of Florida by Wed morning. The
frontal boundary will dissipate by early Thu as broad surface
troughing forms east of the forecast waters. A strong cold front
will move off the southeastern U.S. coast late Wed night, reach
from near 31N67W to the NW Bahamas and to South Florida Thu night,
then become stationary near 25N by late Fri as strong high
pressure builds across the area in its wake. Fresh to strong
northeast to east winds and building seas to around 15 ft are
expected north and northeast of the Bahamas Fri and Fri night.
These seas are forecast to build even further Sat and Sat night in
a long-period north to northeast swell, possibly reaching as high
as 20 ft in the far northeast part of the forecast waters on Sat
night. The long-period swell will impact the waters between the
southeastern Bahamas and Puerto Rico with rough seas on Sat and
Sat night leading to potentially hazardous marine conditions.

$$
Aguirre
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