[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 281740
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Mon Nov 28 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1720 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea
near 10N14W, to 06N20W and 03N24W. The ITCZ continues from
03N24W, to 02N34W, and 02N43W. Precipitation: widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong is within 180 nm to the north of the
monsoon trough between 27W and 43W. Isolated moderate to locally
strong is from 10N southward from 27W eastward.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front passes through Florida's Atlantic Ocean coastal
waters that are near 27N80W, through Lake Okeechobee, to 24N85W
in the Gulf of Mexico, to the NW corner of the Yucatan
Peninsula, to the northern part of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of
southern Mexico that is near 18N92W. Precipitation: isolated
moderate to locally strong is within 120 nm to the north of the
cold front from 90W eastward. Rainshowers are possible within 60
nm to the north of the rest of the cold front. The 24-hour
rainfall total in inches, for the time period that ended at
28/1200 UTC, according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES/MIATPTPAN, is: 2.43 in Merida in Mexico

A stationary front passes through SE Louisiana, to the coast of
Texas that is near 27N97W. Precipitation: widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong is from 26N to 28N between 87W and
93W.

A 1012 mb low pressure center is about 60 nm to the east of the
coast of Mexico near 23.5N 96.5W. A surface trough curves
through the low pressure center and 96W/98W from 21N to 25N.
Precipitation: rainshowers are possible from 26N southward from
94W westward.  A 1018 mb high pressure center is near 28N87W.
The current weak pressure gradient allows for light to locally
moderate winds, and sea heights that range from 2 feet to 4
feet.

A weak cold front extends from central Florida to the eastern
Bay of Campeche. The front will gradually dissipate as it moves
across the far southeastern Gulf this afternoon. Strong high
pressure building in the wake of the front will prevail through
Wed, at which time a cold front will move into the NW Gulf. This
front will reach from northern Florida to near Tampico, Mexico
by Wed evening, and from central Florida to near Veracruz,
Mexico by Thu. Fresh to strong winds and building seas will
follow the front. The high pressure will shift eastward through
Fri night allowing for winds to become easterly and moderate to
fresh in speeds across most of the basin. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will precede the front.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The GFS model for 250 nm shows that the area of Trinidad and NE
Venezuela is on the southern side of the trough that passes from
the central Atlantic Ocean toward the SE Caribbean Sea. The GFS
model for 700 mb shows that broad and gentle cyclonic wind flow
is in the same area of the SE Caribbean Sea. Widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong is from 09N to 13N between 60W and
65W, in the waters and the inland areas of Trinidad and
Venezuela. Some 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the time
period that ended at 28/1200 UTC, according to the PAN AMERICAN
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES/MIATPTPAN, are: 1.88 in
Trinidad, and 0.12 in Curacao. Nearly four inches of rain have
been reported in Trinidad during the last three days.

Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor
imagery practically everywhere from 86W eastward. Some high
level moisture is pushing its way northward, from 15N southward
between 67W and 78W.

The monsoon trough is along 09N/10N between 75W in northern
Colombia, and beyond Panama/Costa Rica, into the tropical NE
Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong is from 14N southward from 75W westward. The GFS
model for 250 mb shows that broad cyclonic wind flow, with a
NE-to-SW oriented trough, covers the SW corner of the area, from
15N southward from 75W westward.

The surface pressure gradient between a 1018 mb high pressure
center that is near 31N57W, and comparatively lower pressures
that are in northern South America, support fresh to locally
strong trade winds, and sea heights that range from 4 feet to 7
feet, in the central and eastern Caribbean Sea, including in the
entrance of the Windward Passage. The comparatively fastest wind
speeds are  offshore NW Colombia. Moderate or slower wind
speeds, and slight seas, are elsewhere.

High pressure will remain north of the area through most of the
week maintaining moderate to fresh easterly breezes across the
central and eastern Caribbean Sea. Winds may pulse to strong
speeds at night south of Hispaniola and in the Windward Passage
Tue through Thu, then become rather persistent through Fri
night, including in the lee of Cuba. Moderate to fresh trade
winds are expected over just about the entire basin through the
period.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 31N39W to 27N44W to 24N50W. A
surface trough continues from 24N50W to 23N65W. Precipitation:
broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and isolated moderate to
locally strong is within 240 nm to the north of the front, and
within 180 nm to the south of the front, from 50W eastward.
Isolated moderate is possible within 180 nm on either side of
the surface trough.

A 1018 mb high pressure center is near 31N57W. A 1030 mb high
pressure center is near 39N15W. A surface ridge passes through
31N29W to 26N36W.

Moderate to locally strong S-SW winds, and sea heights that
range from 5 feet to 7 feet, are from 29N northward from 68W
westward. Fresh to strong southwest winds are to the east and to
the southeast of the front from 29N northward. Fresh west to
northwest winds are to the west of the front to 53W, from 29N
northward. The sea heights from 8 feet to 22 feet. The
comparatively highest sea heights are to the north of the
frontal boundary near 30N53W.

The GFS model for 250 mb shows a NE-to-SW oriented trough that
passes through the central Atlantic Ocean toward the SE
Caribbean Sea. The GFS model for 500 mb and for 700 mb shows
that cyclonic wind flow with a trough is from 07N to 20N between
40W and 52W.  A surface trough is along 25N40W, to 15N45W, to
06N46W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong is from 01N to 07N between 40W and 52W. Isolated moderate
to locally strong is elsewhere from 10N southward between 40W
and 52W.

A weak cold front extends from 31N73W to central Florida. The
front will reach from near 31N70W to SE Florida this evening,
and from 31N64W to the Straits of Florida by Tue morning. A
strong cold front will move off the southeastern U.S. coast late
Wed night, reach from near 31N70W to the NW Bahamas and to South
Florida Thu night, then become stationary near 25N by late Fri
as strong high pressure builds across the area in its wake.
Fresh to strong northeast to east winds and building seas to
around 15 ft are expected north and northeast of the Bahamas Fri
and Fri night.

$$
mt/gr
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