[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 281017
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Mon Nov 28 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1015 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Guinea near
11N15W to 06N20W and to 04N25W, where latest scatterometer data
indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to
03N34W to 04N40W and to 01N50W. Scattered moderate convection
is within 120 nm south of trough between the coast of Africa and
16W. Similar activity is within 60 nm south of the ITCZ between
30W-38W and along the ITCZ between 25W-30W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A rather weak 1016 mb high center is analyzed over the eastern
Gulf near 27N85W. A weak cold front extends from Fort Myers,
Florida to 26N84W, where it becomes a dissipating stationary front
to near 23N90W. Isolated weak showers are near the front. Generally
weak high pressure over the Gulf is the main feature controlling
the winds regime over the area. The earlier diurnal convection
that was over the western Yucatan peninsula due to the typical
diurnal trough that forms there in the afternoons had pushed
westward over the eastern Bay of Campeche waters during the
overnight hours. The deep convection associated with this feature
has just about entirely dissipated. Only isolated showers are
possible in the far eastern Bay of Campeche.  The weak pressure
gradient allows for light to locally moderate winds and seas of
2-4 ft across the Gulf waters.

For the forecast, the aforementioned weak cold front will
gradually dissipate as it moves across the far southeastern Gulf
this afternoon. Strong high pressure building in the wake of the
front will prevail through Wed, at which time a cold front will
move into the NW Gulf. Winds will increase to strong speeds behind
this next front, and spread across the western Gulf and into the
southwestern Gulf and northern Gulf waters Wed through Thu.
Possible frequent gusts to gale force may occur in sections of the
western Gulf Wed and Wed night. The high pressure will shift
eastward through Fri night allowing for winds to become easterly
and moderate to fresh in speeds across most of the basin.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will precede the front.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are confined to the far
southwestern Caribbean, where the eastern segment of the E Pacific
monsoon trough is present. Otherwise, fairly tranquil weather
conditions prevail across the basin. The gradient between a
1020 mb high pressure center analyzed to the southeast of Bermuda
near 30N60w and lower pressures in northern South America support
fresh to locally strong trade winds in the central and eastern
Caribbean, including the entrance of the Windward Passage as where
noted in overnight partial ASCAT data passes. The strongest winds
are noted offshore NW Colombia. Seas in the waters described are
4-7 ft. Moderate or weaker winds and slight seas are prevalent
elsewhere.

For the forecast, high pressure will remain north of the area
through most of the week maintaining moderate to fresh easterly
breezes across the central and eastern Caribbean Sea. Winds may
pulse to strong speeds at night south of Hispaniola and in the
Windward Passage Tue through Thu, then become rather persistent
through Fri night, including in the lee of Cuba. Moderate to fresh
trade winds are expected over just about the entire basin through
the period.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front that moved offshore the southeastern U.S. coast
extends from 31N78W to near Cocoa Beach, Florida. Scattered
showers and weakening thunderstorms are along and ahead of the
front from 29N to 32N and east to near 73W as seen in satellite
imagery. Moderate to locally strong S-SW winds are present north
of 29N and west of 68W. Seas in these waters are in the 5-7 ft
range. To the east, another cold front extends from near 31N41W
to 26N48W and to 23N56W, where it becomes a stationary front to
23N60W and to 24N72W. Areas of rain with embedded scattered
moderate convection is seen along and within 90 to 120 nm
southeast of the cold front north of 26N. Fresh to strong
southwest winds are ahead of the front north of 29N, and fresh
west to northwest winds are west of the front to 53W and north of
29N. Seas in these waters are in the large range of 8-22 ft, with
the highest seas noted behind the frontal boundary near 32N49W.

The remainder of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by strong
high pressure of 1031 mb that is analyzed well north of the area
east of the Azores. This feature is maintaining fairly tranquil
weather conditions. The pressure gradient between the strong high
pressure and lower pressures in the deep tropics is allowing for
moderate to fresh easterly winds south of 20N and between the
Lesser Antilles and 35W. Seas in these waters are 6-8 ft due to
primarily a long period northeast to east swell. A tighter
pressure gradient is found off the coasts of Morocco and Western
Sahara supporting fresh to strong NE winds, primarily north of 20N
and east of 25W. In the rest of the basin, moderate or weaker
winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast W of 55W, strong southwest winds north N of 30N
and east of the aforementioned cold front to 73W will diminish by
early this evening as the front reaches from near 31N72W to
27N75W. The front will reach from near Bermuda to South Florida
early Tue, then become stationary and weaken near 25N on Wed. A
strong cold front will move off the southeastern U.S. coast late
Wed night, reach from near 31N70W to the NW Bahamas and to South
Florida Thu night, then become stationary near 25N by late Fri as
strong high pressure builds across the area in its wake. Fresh to
strong northeast to east winds and building seas to around 15 ft
are expected north and northeast of the Bahamas Fri and Fri night.

$$
Aguirre
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