[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 232334
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Thu Nov 24 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough remains over the African continent. An ITCZ
stretches westward from the coast of Liberia near 05N09W to
06N22W to 05N35W to 06N50W. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is from 03N to 08N between 15W and 40W. scattered
moderate convection is within about 90 nm N of the ITCZ between
44W and 48W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough remains over the western Gulf and runs from
the eastern Bay of Campeche near 20N92W northwestward to near
Corpus Christi, Texas. A recent scatterometer pass shows very
well the wind shift associated with the trough. Moderate to fresh
winds are on either side of this feature with seas of 6 to 8 ft
based on buoys observations. The eastern part of the Gulf is
under the influence of a ridge that is producing gentle to
moderate NE winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are noted over the SE Gulf near 24N87W
and over the eastern Bay of Campeche.

For the forecast, high pressure over the area will gradually
shift eastward through Fri as low pressure develops over Texas. A
cold front associated to the low pressure is expected to move
into the NW Gulf late Thu night into early Fri followed by strong
northwest to north winds and building seas. Winds may reach near
gale force behind the front off the coast of Mexico west of 95W
Fri into Fri night. Winds and seas will diminish through Sun as
the weakening front reaches the eastern Gulf, and broad weak high
pressure builds over the basin. The high pressure will shift to
the NE Gulf by Mon night allowing for fresh southerly flow to
develop over the western Gulf.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper-level low spinning over the far SE Caribbean and
Venezuela continues to generate scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms over the Windward Islands and parts of Venezuela.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are also noted near
a surface trough with axis along 81W and across parts of Nicaragua
and NE Honduras. A diffluent pattern aloft is helping to induce
the latter convective activity. Elsewhere across the basin,
patches of low level moisture embedded in the trade wind flow are
observed. Moderate to fresh trades and seas of 5 to 7 ft are
noted over the east and central Caribbean, including near Cabo
Beata, in the Dominican Republic. Gentle to moderate winds are
over the western Caribbean with seas of 3 to 5 ft.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient across the area will
slacken tonight allowing for winds and seas to diminish across
the basin, except for occasionally fresh east winds south of
Hispaniola and through the Windward Passage. A weak cold front
may approach the Yucatan Channel this weekend before dissipating
late Sun or Mon.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends from 31N45W to 29N50W to 31N60W. The
western part of the front between 60W and 73W is now N of the
forecast area. A surface trough is analyzed from near Bermuda to
28N72W. Abundant cloudiness, with scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms, is seen across the waters N of 26N between 60W
and the E coast of Florida. The remainder of the Atlantic
forecast waters is dominated by a 1024 mb high pressure centered
W of the Madeira Islands near 32N18W. The pressure gradient
between the broad ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics
is supporting fresh to locally strong easterly winds across most
of the east and central Atlantic south of 20N. Seas are 7-9 ft
within these waters based on several altimeter passes.

For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front will move south into
the waters north of 28N Fri night, and shift east of the area
through Sat. The front will be preceded by fresh to strong
southwest winds north of 29N and seas to around 11 ft. Another
cold front will move off the northeast Florida coast late on Sun,
and weaken as it reaches from near 31N66W to the NW Bahamas by
late Mon.

$$
GR
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