[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 231750
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Wed Nov 23 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough remains over the African continent. An ITCZ
stretches westward from west of Liberia at 04N12W across 06N35W
to near French Guiana at 05N52W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted up to 60 nm north, and 120 nm south of the ITCZ.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough runs northwestward from the eastern Bay of
Campeche to near Corpus Christi, Texas. Another surface trough is
near 24N89W. These features are producing scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms at the Central and western Gulf. Moderate
to locally fresh northerly winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft exist at
the western-central and southwestern Gulf. Moderate ENE winds
with 4 to 6 ft seas are seen across the northern Gulf. Gentle to
moderate E to SE winds and seas at 3 to 4 ft prevail for the rest
fo the Gulf.

For the forecast, a surface trough combined with high pressure
north of the area will support fresh to strong winds and rough
seas in the central and southwestern Gulf through this morning
before diminishing in the afternoon. Looking ahead, strong NW
winds and building seas will follow a cold front expected to move
into the northwestern Gulf late Thu night. Winds may reach near
gale force behind the front off the coast of Mexico west of 95W
Fri into Fri night. Winds and seas will diminish through Sun as
the weakening front reaches the eastern Gulf and broad high
pressure builds over the basin.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough is generating widely scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms at the west-central and southwestern basin.
An upper-level low near the ABC Islands are triggering scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms over the Windward and Leeward
Islands. Otherwise, an easterly trade-wind pattern continues
across the entire basin. Moderate to fresh E trades and seas of 5
to 8 ft are present for the central and eastern basin. Gentle to
moderate ENE to E trades and seas at 2 to 4 ft prevail for western
basin.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient across the region will
continue to support fresh to occasionally strong trade winds
across the central and northeastern Caribbean this morning, as
well as through the Windward Passage. Winds and seas will diminish
across the basin tonight, except for occasionally fresh E winds
persisting south of Hispaniola and through the Windward Passage.
Looking ahead, a cold front may approach the Yucatan Channel this
weekend.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weakening stationary front stretches west-southwestward from
31N46W to southern Florida. Scattered moderate convection is
occurring up to 80 nm along either side of the front. A surface
trough is causing similar conditions near the northeast coast of
Florida. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional
convection in the Atlantic Basin. A 1025 mb Azores High is
sustaining light to gentle winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft north of
24N between the northwest African coast and 43W, including the
Canary Islands. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds and seas of 6 to
9 ft in northerly swell are seen farther west north of 24N between
43W and the Georgia-Florida coast. To the south, moderate to fresh
NE to ENE trades with 6 to 8 ft seas are found from 07N to 24N
between the central African coast and Lesser Antilles. Gentle to
moderate southerly trades and seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail for the
remainder of the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, a frontal trough will move across
the waters north of 28N tonight and Thu, then stall and dissipate
along 27N Thu night. Looking ahead, another front will move south
into the waters north of 28N Fri night, and then shift east of
the area through Sat. Yet another front may move off the northeast
Florida coast Sun.

$$

Chan
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net