[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 220734
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Tue Nov 22 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0700 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from Sierra Leone near 07N12W to
06N15W. The ITCZ continues from 06N15W to 04.5N35W to near the
border of Suriname and Guyana at 06N54W. Scattered moderate
convection is observed from 02N to 07N between 19W and 40W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends from the Florida Straits to near
22N89W. A few thunderstorms are active along the front north of
the Yucatan Channel. A surface trough extends from 27N97W to
19N95W and a few showers are noted near the trough axis. The
tight pressure gradient between the strong ridge to the north and
lower pressures associated with these boundaries is maintaining
fresh to strong NE-E winds over the majority of the Gulf. N-NW
strong to near gale force winds are found in the SW Gulf waters,
with the strongest winds occurring offshore Veracruz. Seas of 8 ft
or greater prevail south of 28N and west of 86W, peaking around
12 ft in the offshore waters of Veracruz as well as east of the
trough to 90W per recent buoy observations. Seas of 4-7 ft are
found in the northern and eastern Gulf waters, north of 28N and
east of 86W.

For the forecast, the front will dissipate today. Strong high
pressure north of the front will support fresh to strong winds and
rough seas into the middle of the week. Looking ahead, strong NW
winds and building seas will follow another front expected to move
into the northwest Gulf late Thu. Winds and seas will diminish
through late Sat as the weakening front reaches the southeast
Gulf.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The eastern Pacific monsoon trough extends into the SW Caribbean
near the coast of Costa Rica and Panama to a 1008 mb low near
10N77.5W. Scattered moderate convection is affecting the waters
of the SW Caribbean Sea, primarily south of 13N and west of 77W.
A few showers are also seen over the Gulf of Honduras. Fresh
easterly trade winds are evident in the eastern, central and SW
Caribbean, with the strongest winds occurring in the NE Caribbean,
offshore NW Colombia and the Windward Passage. Seas are 5-7 ft in
these waters, with the highest seas to 8 ft occurring north of
the Panama Canal near 13N79W. Moderate trades prevail in the NW
Caribbean along with 3-5 ft seas.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient across the region will
continue to support fresh to occasionally strong trade winds
across the central and northeast Caribbean into mid week. Winds
and seas will diminish across the basin by Thu, except for
occasionally fresh E winds persisting south of Hispaniola.
Looking ahead, a cold front may approach the Yucatan Channel this
weekend.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 29.5N55W to 29N61W, then is stationary
to the Straits of Florida. Scattered showers are present near and
to the north of the frontal boundary. An earlier scatterometer
pass found fresh to strong ENE winds north of the boundaries where
seas are 7-10 ft. Divergence aloft is supporting scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms to the east of the Lesser
Antilles, especially from 06N to 15N and between 45W and 61W.
A pair of 1026 mb and 1027 mb high centers centered south-
southwest of the Azores dominate the remainder of the Atlantic
forecast waters. The pressure gradient between the broad ridge and
lower pressures in the deep tropics is supporting fresh to locally
strong easterly winds across most of the central and eastern
Atlantic south of 27N. Seas are 7-10 ft within these waters.
Gentle to moderate winds and 5-6 ft seas primarily in SE swell are
found north of 29N under the high pressure.

For the forecast west of 55W, the front will weaken and drift
north to along 31N by this evening before moving eastward again
across the waters north of 28N through Thu. Looking ahead, a
another front will move south into the waters north of 28N late
Fri, and then shift east of the area through Sat.

$$
Lewitsky
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