[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 220409
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Tue Nov 22 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0400 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from Sierra Leone near 07N12W to
06N15W. The ITCZ continues from 06N15W to 02N51W. Scattered
moderate convection is observed from 02N to 06N, between 20W and
41W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends from the Florida Keys to 23N86W.
Scattered weak convection is found within 150 nm north of the
frontal boundary. A surface trough extends from 20N94W to 28N98W
and a few showers are noted near the trough axis. The tight
pressure gradient between the strong ridge to the north and
lower pressures associated with these boundaries is maintaining
fresh to strong NE-E winds over the majority of the Gulf. N-NW
strong to near gale force winds are found in the SW Gulf waters,
with the strongest winds occurring offshore Veracruz. Seas of 8
ft or greater prevail S of 28N and W of 86W, peaking near 11 ft
in the offshore waters of Veracruz. Seas of 4-8 ft are found in
the northern and eastern Gulf waters, N of 28N and E of 86W.

For the forecast, The stationary front will dissipate overnight.
Strong high pressure north of the front will support fresh to
strong winds and rough seas into the middle of the week. Looking
ahead, strong NW winds and building seas will follow another
front expected to move into the northwest Gulf late Thu. Winds
and seas will diminish through late Sat as the weakening front
reaches the southeast Gulf.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The eastern Pacific monsoon trough extends into the SW Caribbean
near the coast of Costa Rica and Panama to a 1008 mb low near
10N77W. Scattered moderate convection is affecting the waters of
the SW Caribbean Sea, primarily S of 14N and W of 77W. A few
showers are also seen over the Gulf of Honduras. Fresh easterly
trade winds are evident in the eastern, central and SW
Caribbean, with the strongest winds occurring in the NE
Caribbean, offshore NW Colombia and the Windward Passage. Seas
are 5-7 ft in these waters, with the highest seas to 8 ft
occurring north of the Panama Canal near 11N79W.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient across the region will
continue to support fresh to occasionally strong trade winds
across the central and northeast Caribbean into mid-week. Winds
and seas will diminish across the basin by Thu, except for
occasionally fresh E winds persisting south of Hispaniola.
Looking ahead, a cold front is expected to reach the Yucatan
Channel by late Sat.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N56W to 29N68W, becoming a
stationary front to the NW Bahamas and the Florida Keys.
Scattered moderate convection is present near and to the north
of the frontal boundary. A recent scatterometer pass found fresh
to strong ENE winds north of the boundaries where seas are 7-10
ft. Divergence aloft is supporting scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms to the east of the Lesser Antilles,
especially from 07N to 15N and between 46W and 57W. A 1031 mb
high pressure system centered south of the Azores dominates the
remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters. The pressure gradient
between the broad ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics
is supporting fresh easterly winds across most of the central
and eastern Atlantic. Seas are 8-10 ft within these waters.

For the forecast, the cold front will weaken and drift north to
along 31N by Tue evening before moving eastward again across the
waters north of 28N through Thu. Looking ahead, another front
will move south into the waters north of 28N late Fri, and then
shift east of the area through Sat.

$$
Flynn
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