[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 191751
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sat Nov 19 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A 1012 mb low in the W Gulf near
24.5N96W is drifting northward. A sharp trough extends from the
low to 19N91W. These features combined with high pressure north of
the area are supporting fresh to strong winds across the northern
and central Gulf west of 88W and seas of 6-10 ft. The low and
trough will drift north over the weekend. A tightening gradient
between them and a surface ridge across the Gulf States will cause
winds to increase and reach strong to gale force, and seas
reaching 12-16 ft in the NW Gulf by late this afternoon. These
winds will then spread into the west-central and north-central
Gulf, then southward through Sun, including the SW Gulf offshore
Veracruz. Seas will peak around 17 ft late tonight through Sun
morning. Gale force winds should diminish across much of the area
by Sun afternoon, except offshore Veracruz where they will
diminish late Sun night. Conditions will improve modestly on Mon
and then significantly Tue through Wed. Please read the Offshore
Waters Forecast at www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php and the
High Seas Forecast at www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for
more information.

East-Central Atlantic Gale Winds and Rough Seas: A tight pressure
gradient between a strong 1034 mb Azores High and lower pressures
in NW Africa are causing winds and seas to increase and build.
Meteo-France is forecasting near-gale to gale force winds through
20/12 UTC in the Agadir Marine Zone, and through 20/00 UTC in the
Tarfaya Marine Zone. Please read the High Seas Warning and
Forecast issued by Meteo- France at website:
http://weather.gmdss.org/II.html for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough continues mostly confined to the African
continent, reaching the Atlantic through the coast of Liberia near
06N09W to 04N19W. The ITCZ extends from 04N19W to 01N37W. Weak
showers are noted within 60 nm on both sides of the ITCZ.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section about a Gale Warning.

Outside of the influence of the developing storm system in the
western Gulf, fairly tranquil weather conditions prevail in the
remaining waters. Moderate to fresh NE-E winds are found in the
eastern Gulf waters, including the Florida Straits. A surface
trough extends from near 19N92W to 24N95W. Gentle to moderate SE
winds are noted east of the trough axis, while NW winds are
observed west of the trough axis. Seas in the waters described
are 4-7 ft.

For the forecast, a 1012 mb low in the W Gulf near 24.5N96W is
drifting northward. A sharp trough extends from the low to 19N91W.
These features combined with high pressure north of the area are
supporting fresh to strong winds across the northern and central
Gulf west of 88W. The low and trough will drift north over the
weekend. The pressure gradient between this low pres and new high
pres across the south-central U.S. will strengthen the winds and
produce strong to gale force winds across much of the Gulf of
Mexico late this afternoon through Sun night while a cold front
develops across the northeast Gulf and drops southward. The front
will stall across the south-central waters by Sun night.
Conditions will improve modestly on Mon and then significantly Tue
through Wed.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The East Pacific monsoon trough enters the SW Caribbean Sea
through northern Costa Rica and extends eastward to NW Colombia. A
recent scatterometer satellite pass captured a low pressure area
along the monsoon trough near 11N81W. A large area of showers and
thunderstorms is seen on satellite imagery, primarily W of 78W and
S of 16N. A weak surface trough is also present near the Bay
Islands of Honduras and a few showers and isolated thunderstorms
are noted in the region. Fairly tranquil weather conditions
prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea.

Fresh to strong easterly wind trades are evident in the central
and SW Caribbean, with the strongest winds noted off NW Colombia
and southern Hispaniola. Seas in these waters are 6-9 ft, with the
highest seas occurring off NW Colombia. Moderate to fresh easterly
breezes are present in the eastern and NW Caribbean, along with
seas of 4-6 ft. Moderate or weaker winds and seas of 2-5 ft are
found in the Gulf of Honduras.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient across the region will continue
to support moderate to fresh trade winds for the next several
days, pulsing to strong at night in the central Caribbean this
weekend. A shear line from central Cuba to near Cozumel, Mexico
will gradually dissipate today. Increasing winds and seas will
impact the Tropical N Atlantic waters Sun night through Wed, and
across the NE Caribbean, including Atlantic Passages, Mon
afternoon through Wed as a broad trough moves westward.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section above on a Gale Warning
and Rough Seas in the east-central Atlantic.

A stationary front extends from near 31N65W to the central Bahamas
and a few showers are noted near the frontal boundary. Fairly
tranquil weather conditions persist in the rest of western
tropical Atlantic, W of 55W. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and
seas of 4-7 ft are found S of 25N and W of 55W. Moderate or
weaker winds are noted N of 25N, along with seas of 3-6 ft.

A large upper level low is quite evident on water vapor imagery
near 18N52W and at the surface, a trough extends from 24N47W to
13N51W. Another surface trough stretches from 17N46W to 11N47W.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen on satellite
imagery from 10N to 21N and between 40W and 54W. The remainder of
the basin is dominated by a strong subtropical ridge near the
Azores. The pressure gradient due to the aforementioned ridge and
lower pressures in the deep tropics result in fresh to strong
easterly winds covering most of the central and eastern Atlantic,
especially E of 50W. Seas in these waters are 6-10 ft, with the
highest seas occurring in the waters NW of the Cabo Verde Islands.
Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned stationary front
will wash out and begin to retreat later today. Tonight into
early Sun, another cold front will enter the waters off NE
Florida, and move southeast before stalling from south of Bermuda
to the Straits of Florida Mon. This boundary will then weaken and
drift north to along 31N by Tue evening before moving SE again
across the far NW waters through Wed night.

$$
DELGADO
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