[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 190937
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sat Nov 19 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0810 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A 1015 mb low is in the SW Gulf
near 22N96W. A sharp trough extends from 28N97W through the low
to 19N91W. These features are expected to gradually lift
northeastward over the weekend. A tightening gradient between
them and a surface ridge across the Gulf States will cause winds
to increase and reach strong to gale force, and seas reaching 10
to 14 ft at the northwestern Gulf by late Sat morning. These winds
will then spread into the west-central and north-central Gulf,
then southward through Sun, including the SW Gulf offshore
Veracruz. Seas will peak around 17 ft late tonight through Sun
morning. Gale force winds should diminish across much of the area
by Sun afternoon, except offshore Veracruz where they will
diminish late Sun night. Please read the Offshore Waters Forecast
at www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php and the High Seas
Forecast at www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more
information.

East-Central Atlantic Gale Winds and Rough Seas: A strong 1033 mb
Azores High builds toward northwest Africa behind a cold front,
causing winds and seas to increase and build. Meteo-France is
forecasting near-gale to gale force winds through 20/12 UTC in
the Agadir Marine Zone, and through 20/00 UTC in the Tarfaya
Marine Zone. Please read the High Seas Warning and Forecast
issued by Meteo-France at website:
http://weather.gmdss.org/II.html for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough remains over the African continent based on the
latest analysis, with the western end extending along the coast of
northern Liberia to Sierra Leone. An ITCZ extends westward from
05N14W to 07N31W, and then west of a surface trough from 07N44W
to 07.5N50W to northeast of Guyana near 10N57W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 08N to 10N between 48W and 56W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section about a Gale Warning.

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen at the
west-central Gulf near the 1017 mb low mentioned in the Special
Features section. A 1029 mb high over the southeast Mississippi
continues to channel easterly winds across the Gulf. Fresh to
strong NE to E winds and seas of 8 to 11 ft are present north of
25N, with similar conditions except E to SE winds from 22N to 25N,
except a narrow band of NW winds along the Mexican coast,
including the western Bay of Campeche. Fresh to locally strong NE
winds and 7 to 9 ft seas are blowing from the Straits of Florida
through the Yucatan Channel. Gentle to moderate southerly winds
and seas of 4 to 7 ft in NE swell are evident at the eastern Bay
of Campeche. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds with 4 to 7ft seas
prevail for the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, the low and trough will drift north over the
weekend. The pressure gradient between this low pres and new high
pres across the south-central U.S. will strengthen the winds and
produce strong to gale force winds across much of the Gulf of
Mexico late this afternoon through Sun night while a cold front
develops northeast of the low and drops south. The front will
stall across the south-central waters by Sun night. Conditions
will improve modestly on Mon and then significantly Tue through
Wed.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A shear line reaches southwestward from central Cuba to near
Cozumel, Mexico. Meanwhile, a surface trough is seen to the south
over the Gulf of Honduras. Interaction between these features
along with abundant moisture is generating scattered showers and
thunderstorms over the northwestern basin, including the Yucatan
Channel. Convergent trade winds just north of the tail end of the
East Pacific monsoon trough are triggering scattered showers and
thunderstorms over the west-central waters from 11.5N to 15N, west
of 78W to across eastern Nicaragua.

A NE to E trade-wind pattern continues for much of the Caribbean
Sea. Fresh to strong trades and seas of 6 to 8 ft are evident at
the central basin. Moderate to fresh trades with 4 to 7 ft seas
are found at the eastern and northwestern basin. Mainly moderate
trades and seas at 5 to 6 ft are evident at the southwestern
basin, except gentle to moderate monsoonal winds south of 11N near
and south of the monsoon trough.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure in
the central Atlantic and lower pressure in the SW Caribbean will
support moderate to fresh trade winds during the next several
days, pulsing to strong in the central Caribbean this weekend. A
shear line from central Cuba to near Cozumel, Mexico will
gradually dissipate today. Fresh NE winds and high seas through
and south of the Yucatan Channel will diminish through the
morning. Increasing winds and seas will impact the Tropical N
Atlantic waters Sun night through Wed, and across the NE
Caribbean, including Atlantic Passages, Mon afternoon through Wed
as a broad trough moves by.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section above on a Gale Warning
and Rough Seas in the east-central Atlantic.

A stationary front extends from just southeast of Bermuda across
the Central Bahamas to N central Cuba. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are occurring up to 75 nm either side of
the front. Moderate to fresh NE winds are blowing south of 27N
across the Bahamas and through the Straits of Florida as well as
to offshore northern Hispaniola. Seas are 4 to 7 ft west of the
Bahamas across the Gulf Stream. Gentle to moderate winds and 3 to
5 ft seas are elsewhere west of the front.

A pronounced upper-level trough extends northeastward from a low
near 19N50W to beyond 31N at 37W. Aided by two surface troughs in
the vicinity, scattered moderate convection is seen from 15N to
24N between 46W and 54W. A third surface trough further southeast
from 10N34W to the Equator at 32W is supporting scattered moderate
convection from 12N to 17N between 37W and 46W. Refer to the
Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional convection in the
Atlantic Basin.

A 1033 mb Azores High is channeling fresh to locally strong trades
and 7 to 10 ft seas east of 35W, highest near the coast of Africa
and downwind of the Cabo Verde Islands. Moderate to fresh trades
and 5 to 8 ft seas are south of 27N and west of 50W, as well as
across the waters south of 31N between 35W and 50W. Gentle to
moderate winds and 4 to 5 ft seas are under a ridge extending from
the Azores High through 31N50W to 28N71W.

For the forecast west of 55W, fresh NE winds south of 27N and
west of the front will prevail through tonight. The front will
wash out and begin to retreat later today. Tonight into early Sun,
another cold front will enter the waters off NE Florida, and move
southeast before stalling from south of Bermuda to the Straits of
Florida Mon. This boundary will then weaken and drift north to
along 31N by Tue evening before moving SE again across the far NW
waters through Wed night.

$$
Lewitsky
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