[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 120420
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sat Nov 12 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0410 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front will emerge off the
Texas coast overnight with frequent gusts to gale force expected
off the South Texas coast. The cold front will extend from the
Alabama coast to Veracruz, Mexico Sat afternoon. Winds will reach
gale force speed just north of Tampico Sat morning. These
northerly winds will reach the Veracruz offshore waters Sat
afternoon/early evening. Winds will drop below gale force by Sat
evening and diminish to moderate to fresh by Sun. Please read the
latest the High Seas Forecast issued by NHC at
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the eastern Caribbean with axis near 69W/70W,
and south of 20N, moving west at around 5 kt. A few showers and
thunderstorms are active off the coast of Venezuela east of
Caracas.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea-Bissau near
12N16W to 08N20W. The ITCZ continues from 08N20W to 05N52W.
Scattered moderate convection is from 04N to 08N between 28W and
45W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

See Special Features section above for information an upcoming
Gale Warning.

1014 mb high pressure over the central Gulf is supporting
gentle winds and slight seas over most of the basin, except for
moderate to fresh SE winds off the coast of Tamaulipas, between
the high pressure and lower pressure over north central Mexico. No
significant weather is observed, although a few showers may be
developing over the coast of Texas ahead of a cold front moving
through the coastal plains.

For the forecast, the cold front will move over the northwest
Gulf overnight with strong N winds and frequent gusts to gale
force off the Texas coast. By Sat morning, the front will stretch
from SE Louisiana to near Tampico, Mexico then reach from Tampa
Bay, FL to the western Bay of Campeche by Sun morning. Strong N
winds and moderate to high seas will follow the front through Sun.
Brief gale conditions will occur across the upper Mexican waters
Sat morning and shift southward to offshore of Cabo Rojo, Mexico
Sat afternoon before diminishing. Conditions across the Gulf are
expected to improve by Sun night before the next cold front moves
into the NW Gulf Mon night. This next front is expected to reach
from the Florida Big Bend to the central Bay of Campeche Tue
night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weak pressure gradient across the Caribbean is resulting in
light to gentle winds over the western basin and moderate to
locally fresh trade winds across the eastern basin. Seas are
generally 1-3 ft west of 75W with 3-5 ft east of 75W, along with
northerly swell that still propagates through the Mona and Anegada
Passages.

For the forecast, high pressure NE of Bermuda will sink
southeastward and gradually build across the basin tonight through
Sat. A surface trough will move westward across the E Caribbean
Sun through Mon morning to briefly weaken the trade wind flow
across the basin. High pressure will build into the region as the
trough dissipates along 70W Mon night through Tue, and freshen the
trade winds across the entire basin through Wed.ATLANTIC OCEAN...

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N22W to 24N30W to 24N45W, where it
becomes stationary and continues to 27N55W. Fresh to strong NE to
E winds and rough seas persist north of this boundary. Northerly
swell in excess of 8 ft is evident within 300 nm south of the
front between 30W and 65W. Moderate easterly winds and 5 to 7 ft
seas are noted elsewhere west of 35W. Gentle winds and 4 to 6 ft
seas are evident east of 35W, south of the front. Divergent flow
aloft is supporting scattered showers and a few thunderstorms near
an associated surface trough near 60W from 23N and 29N.

For the forecast west of 55W, winds and seas will gradually
subside through Sat as the front weakens. Looking ahead, a cold
front will move off the coast of northeast Florida early Sun with
moderate to locally fresh winds and moderate seas behind it. The
front will weaken as it moves to a position from Bermuda to the
Florida Keys by Mon night.

$$ Christensen
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