[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 120005
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Fri Nov 11 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2350 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Post-Tropical Cyclone Nicole is centered near 37.7N 82.0W at
11/2100 UTC or 50 nm SSW of Charleston West Virginia moving NE
at 41 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. As the system
has quickly transitioned to an extratropical cyclone, and will
orbit around the periphery of a deepening low over the Great Lakes
and southeast Canada, gusty surface winds and pressure falls will
persist across the Northeast into this weekend. However, the risk
of excessive rainfall and localized flash flooding with this
extratropical transition will continue to diminish through
Saturday and this will be the final advisory for Nicole. Please
read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml
and Forecast/ Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml for more details.

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front is expected to emerge
off the Texas coast tonight with frequent gusts to gale force
expected off the South Texas coast. The cold front will extend
from the Alabama coast to Veracruz, Mexico Sat afternoon. Winds
will reach gale force speed just N of Tampico Sat morning. These
northerly winds will reach the Veracruz offshore waters Sat
afternoon/early evening. Winds will drop below gale force by Sat
evening and diminish to moderate to fresh by Sun. Please read the
latest the High Seas Forecast issued by NHC at
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the eastern Caribbean with axis near 68W,
and S of 20N, moving west at around 5 kt. Heavy showers and tstms
are occuring mainly inland northern Venezuela with isolated
showers happening in the south-central Caribbean offshore waters.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the W coast of Africa near 09N13W
to 08N18W. The ITCZ continues from 08N18W to 06N40W to 07N56W.
Scattered moderate convection is from 04N to 09N between 16W and
49W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

See Special Features section above for information an upcoming
Gale Warning.

A weak pressure gradient across the Gulf of Mexico is supporting
light to gentle variable winds and slight seas, except W of 95W
where moderate to fresh SE winds and seas to 5 ft are along the E
Mexican coast. Moderate to locally fresh E-SE winds are also along
the Florida panhandle coastal waters.

For the forecast, winds and seas over the northeastern Gulf
associated with Nicole will continue to improve tonight. A cold
front will move over the northwest Gulf Fri evening with frequent
gusts to gale force off the Texas coast. By Sat morning, the front
will stretch from SE Louisiana to near Tampico, Mexico then reach
from Tampa Bay, FL to the western Bay of Campeche by Sun morning.
Strong N winds and moderate to high seas will follow the front
through Sun. Brief gale conditions will occur across the upper
Mexican waters Sat morning and shift southward to offshore of Cabo
Rojo, Mexico Sat afternoon before diminishing. Conditions across
the Gulf are expected to improve by Sun night before the next cold
front moves into the NW Gulf Mon night. This next front is
expected to reach from the Florida Big Bend to the central Bay of
Campeche Tue night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weak pressure gradient across the Caribbean is resulting in
light to gentle winds over the western basin and moderate to
locally fresh trade winds across the eastern basin. Seas are
generally 1-3 ft W of 75W while seas to 5 ft dominate the E
Caribbean along with northerly swell that still propagates
through the Mona and Anegada Passages.

For the forecast, high pressure NE of Bermuda will sink southeastward
and gradually build across the basin tonight through Sat. A surface
trough will move westward across the E Caribbean Sun through Mon
morning to briefly weaken the trade wind flow across the basin.
High pressure will build into the region as the trough dissipates
along 70W Mon night through Tue, and freshen the trade winds
across the entire basin through Wed.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N23W to 24N35W to 24N45W, where it
becomes stationary and continues to 28N66W. North of this
boundary, winds are fresh to strong from the E and SE with 8-13 ft
seas. South of the boundary, winds are gentle to moderate from
the E to NE. Seas are 6-10 ft in this area as northerly swell
propagates southward.

For the forecast west of 55W, winds and seas offshore of NE
Florida will continue to subside tonight. Farther east, strong E
winds and high seas occurring along and to the N of a stalled
frontal boundary that extends roughly along 27N, will gradually
subside through Sat as the front weakens. Looking ahead, a cold
front will move off the coast of northeast Florida early Sun with
moderate to locally fresh winds and moderate seas behind it. The
front will weaken as it moves to a position from Bermuda to the
Florida Keys by Mon night.

$$
Ramos
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