[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT42 KNHC 110245
TCDAT2

Tropical Depression Nicole Discussion Number  16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL172022
1000 PM EST Thu Nov 10 2022

Surface synoptic observations and Doppler radar velocities indicate
that Nicole has weakened to a tropical depression inland near the
Florida/Georgia border.  Maximum sustained winds are estimated to
be 30 kt, and the surface data indicate that the minimum pressure
has risen to 992 mb.  Although Nicole has weakened, it is still a
significant rainfall producer.

Nicole continues moving northwestward, or at about 320/13 kt.  The
cyclone is moving on the western side of a mid-level ridge.  During
the next day or so, the system should accelerate
north-northeastward in the flow on the eastern side of a large
trough until it dissipates.

Continued gradual weakening will occur while Nicole moves farther
inland during the next day or so.  By Friday night, the system is
expected to become post-tropical and be absorbed by the large
mid-latitude weather system over the eastern United States.


Key Messages:

1. Nicole will produce heavy rainfall tonight across the Florida
Peninsula. Flash and urban flooding will be possible across portions
of the Florida Peninsula, with renewed river flooding on the St.
Johns River ongoing. Isolated flash, urban, and small stream
flooding will also be possible on Friday in the Southeast through
the central Appalachians, particularly in the Blue Ridge Mountains,
and extending northward through eastern Ohio, west central
Pennsylvania, into western New York by Friday night into Saturday.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  11/0300Z 30.7N  84.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  11/1200Z 33.0N  84.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 24H  12/0000Z 37.0N  81.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 36H  12/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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