[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT42 KNHC 102047
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Nicole Discussion Number  15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL172022
400 PM EST Thu Nov 10 2022

The center of Nicole briefly emerged over water north of Tampa
around 18Z and is now straddling the coast of the Florida Big Bend
region northwest of Cedar Key.  An earlier scatterometer overpass
showed winds of about 40 kt west of the center over the Gulf of
Mexico, and this is the main basis for the initial intensity of
40 kt.  Surface observations indicate that the central pressure has
risen to near 990 mb.  In addition to weakening, the 34-kt
wind radii associated with the storm have decreased, particularly
in the northeastern quadrant.  This has resulted in significant
changes to the warnings with this advisory.

The initial motion is now 315/13, and this motion is expected to
persist through this evening with the center moving into the eastern
Florida Panhandle. Subsequently, a low- to mid-level ridge to the
northeast of Nicole should move farther eastward as a deep-layer
mid-latitude trough and associated surface cold front are
approaching from the west.  This evolution should cause the storm to
turn northward tonight over Georgia, followed by a faster motion
toward the north-northeast on Friday. The new forecast track has
only minor adjustments from the previous track.

Little change in strength is expected until the center moves
farther inland tonight.  When that happens, Nicole should weaken to
a depression over Georgia.  On Friday and Friday night, the system
is expected to become post-tropical and be absorbed by the large
mid-latitude weather system.


Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions will continue along portions of the
east coast of Florida and Georgia this evening. Tropical storm
conditions will spread northward along the west coast of Florida to
the coast of the Florida Panhandle through tonight.

2. A storm surge warning is in effect for portions of the
northeastern coast of Florida, the southern Georgia coast, and the
Florida Big Bend. Residents in the warning area should listen to
advice given by local officials.

3. Do not focus on the exact track of Nicole since it is a large
storm with hazards extending well to the north of the center,
outside of the forecast cone.  These hazards will continue to
affect much of the Florida peninsula and portions of the southeast
United States.

4. Nicole will produce heavy rainfall this evening across the
Florida Peninsula. Flash and urban flooding will be possible across
portions of the Florida Peninsula along with renewed river flooding
on the St. Johns River. Isolated flash, urban, and small stream
flooding will also be possible on Friday in the Southeast through
the central Appalachians, including the Blue Ridge Mountains, and
extending northward through eastern Ohio, west central Pennsylvania,
into western New York by Friday night into Saturday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  10/2100Z 29.4N  83.2W   40 KT  45 MPH...ALONG THE COAST
 12H  11/0600Z 31.2N  84.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 24H  11/1800Z 34.9N  82.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 36H  12/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven
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