[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT42 KNHC 100253
TCDAT2

Hurricane Nicole Discussion Number  12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL172022
1000 PM EST Wed Nov 09 2022

The hurricane has large intense bands extending quite far from the
center, but does not have a distinct Central Dense Overcast.
Flight-level wind observations from Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that the maximum winds are near 65 kt.  Dvorak satellite
classifications gave a slightly lower intensity, probably because
the system does not have a classic tropical cyclone appearance at
this time.  Nicole has a large eye over 50 nmi in diameter, and a
very large extent of tropical-storm-force winds over its northern
semicircle.

Nicole has made its expected turn toward a west-northwestward
heading and the motion estimate is now 285/11 kt.  The system
should turn toward the northwest and north during the next day or
so while moving along the western side of a mid-level anticyclone,
moving over the Florida peninsula and northern Florida.  In 36 to
48 hours, Nicole should accelerate north-northeastward to the east
of a longwave mid-tropospheric trough.  The official track forecast
is about the same as the previous one and remains close to the
multi-model consensus prediction.

The hurricane has little time to strengthen further before making
landfall in Florida.  Weakening will occur while Nicole moves over
Florida, and even though the center may briefly emerge over the
extreme northeastern Gulf of Mexico, this is not likely to result in
any significant re-intensification.  The system should weaken to a
depression and become a post-tropical cyclone over the southeastern
United States.  Nicole should merge with another extratropical low
over the eastern United States after 48 hours.


Key Messages:

1. Hurricane and tropical storm conditions and a dangerous storm
surge are expected to continue over portions of the northwestern
Bahamas tonight, where a Hurricane Warning remains in effect.

2. Hurricane conditions are expected across portions of the coast
of southeast and east-central Florida tonight, where a Hurricane
Warning is in effect.  Tropical storm conditions will continue along
the east coast of Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina within the
warning areas into Thursday.  Tropical storm conditions are expected
to begin along the west coast of Florida tonight and Thursday.

3. A dangerous storm surge is expected along much of the east coast
of Florida, portions of coastal Georgia, and the Florida Big Bend
along the Gulf coast.  The storm surge will be accompanied by large
and damaging waves along the Atlantic coast.  Residents in the
warning area should listen to advice given by local officials.

4. Do not focus on the exact track of Nicole since it is a large
storm with hazards extending well to the north of the center,
outside of the forecast cone.  These hazards will affect much of the
Florida peninsula and portions of the southeast United States.

5. Nicole will produce heavy rainfall tonight into Thursday across
the Florida Peninsula. Flash and urban flooding will be possible
across portions of the Florida Peninsula along with renewed river
flooding on the St. Johns River. Isolated flash, urban, and small
stream flooding will also be possible on Friday in the Southeast
through the southern and central Appalachians, including the Blue
Ridge Mountains, and extending northward through west-central
Pennsylvania into western New York by Friday night into Saturday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  10/0300Z 27.0N  78.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  10/1200Z 27.9N  81.3W   55 KT  65 MPH...INLAND
 24H  11/0000Z 29.7N  83.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
 36H  11/1200Z 32.6N  83.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 48H  12/0000Z 36.5N  80.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  12/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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